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2020.09.17 07:05 coRvid_ice_elation ¿6Ɩ-pIΛOƆ ɟo pǝᴉp ʎllɐǝɹ ǝʌɐɥ ǝldoǝd ʎuɐW ʍoH

STORY AT-A-GLANCE

After six months of intermittent or in some cases near-continuous lockdowns, many have reached their limit and uprisings are finally emerging around the world. The last week of August 2020 saw gatherings of tens of thousands of individuals in Berlin,1 London2 and Dublin,3 protesting stay-at-home orders, business closures, mask and vaccine mandates and Bill Gates’ dictatorial grip on public health matters.
In the U.S., a protest took place August 30, 2020, in Boston, Massachusetts, against a new student flu vaccination mandate,4 and in Virginia, protesters gathered September 2 in opposition of unconstitutional COVID-19 mandates.5
These are just a few of the many demonstrations that have taken place in recent weeks around the world, as people are starting to realize their human rights are being stripped away over a virus with a lethality on par with that of seasonal influenza and other pandemic viruses, none of which was responded to with a global shutdown of economies and forced quarantining of healthy individuals.

COVID-19 — A Massive Brainwashing Scheme?

In recent weeks and months, more and more experts have come out sharing what they know about the roles of Big Tech, Big Pharma and global health organizations such as the World Health Organization in the creation of a new technocratic world order.
If you missed my interview with financial analyst Patrick Wood, in which he details the technocratic take-over plan, which has been in play for decades, be sure to review it now. Other articles shedding light on what’s happening behind the scenes include “Harvard Professor Exposes Google and Facebook,” featuring a documentary with professor Shoshana Zuboff, and “Plandemic Part 2.”
When you start to put all the puzzle pieces together, it seems clear this pandemic is being used as a cover story for both a global wealth redistribution scheme, and for the implementation of a technocratic system of totalitarian rule by unelected leaders.
The WHO seems to be part and parcel of this global network. While the U.S. has severed ties with the organization, Big Tech is still promoting the WHO as a final arbiter of which views are acceptable and which are not — medical expertise and scientific achievements be damned.
As reported by Reclaim the Net,6 the WHO eavesdrops on everything you do online, from reviewing your social media interactions to analyzing your emotions. To counteract “spread of misleading information” about the pandemic — which was a key area of focus during Event 201 — the WHO has partnered with an analytics company that uses machine learning analysis to scan more than 1.6 million social media posts per week.
The aim of this “social listening approach”— a nicer term than good old-fashioned spying — is to counteract anything that doesn’t align with the WHO’s current narrative on illnesses, treatments, interventions and causes of disease.
Aiding them in this dystopian censoring process is the United Nations, which has launched an army of 10,000 digital volunteers who troll the internet for “false” information and opposing views.
On top of that, most social media platforms have their own highly biased "fact-checkers" who censor for all they’re worth. Back in April 2020, YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki, wife of Google product director Dennis Troper, announced they would ban and remove any video from the platform that contradicts the WHO.7
Countless examples of wanton censorship of perfectly valid medical and scientific information across all social media platforms and Google can be found at this point.

Just How Deadly Is COVID-19?

According to groundbreaking data8 recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, only 6% of the total COVID-19-related deaths in the U.S. had COVID-19 listed as the sole cause of death on the death certificate.
Six percent of 169,044 (the total death toll as of September 2) is 10,143. “For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death,” the CDC states. As reported by Rochester First,9 the top underlying medical conditions included influenza, pneumonia, respiratory failure, high blood pressure, diabetes, dementia, heart problems and renal failure.
However, the list also includes 5,424 intentional and unintentional injury and poisoning deaths, so basically, accidents and suicides in which the individual just happened to test positive (or was suspected of being positive for SARS-CoV-2) are also included in the grand total.
(Please note, these data were accurate as of this writing. The CDC does not notate when data is altered as new death certificates come in, so the numbers may therefore be different from what is reported here, depending on when you’re looking at it. For the most up-to-date figures, see the CDC’s website.10)
The fact that only 6% of COVID-19-related deaths are directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 is bad news when you’re trying to keep a doomsday narrative going. In what appears to be a blatant attempt to minimize exposure of these data, social media platforms have censored many trying to share it.11
As noted by independent news commentator Tim Pool in the video below, fact-checkers are digging into nitpicky semantics in their effort to censor the CDC data, and in so doing, they’re really stretching the “false” claim ultrathin.
https://youtu.be/FkvES1hHWFw
Similar data have emerged from Palm Beach County, Florida, where an investigation by CBS 1212 I-Team revealed only 86 of the reported 658 COVID-19 deaths had “COVID-19 pneumonia” listed as the sole cause of death.
All others had multiple comorbidities, including diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and dementia. As noted by CBS 12, “Most Palm Beach County COVID deaths cannot be attributed to COVID alone.”
While Dr. Terry Adirim, senior associate dean at the Florida Atlantic University College of Medicine, told the I-Team that “it makes sense to count them [people with comorbid conditions] toward COVID deaths because the virus may have made an otherwise nonfatal illness like a heart condition deadly,” the converse argument can also be made.
Had it not been for them having one or more serious comorbidities, the risk of the virus to these individuals would have been minuscule, and if they got sick at all, they’d probably have survived. So, ultimately, should the virus bear the brunt of the blame?

Infection Fatality Rate on Par With the Flu

Keeping the “killer virus” narrative going much longer is probably going to become even more difficult in light of a September 2, 2020 article13 in Annals of Internal Medicine, which points out that:
“Because many cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are asymptomatic, generalizable data on the true number of persons infected are lacking, and that when calculating mortality rates from confirmed cases, you end up overestimating the infection fatality ratio (IFR).”
The paper reads, in part:14
“To calculate a true infection fatality ratio, population prevalence data are needed from large geographic areas where reliable death data also exist … We combined prevalence estimates from a statewide random sample with Indiana vital statistics data of confirmed COVID-19 deaths.
In brief, our stratified random sample consisted of state residents aged 12 years and older. Known decedents and incarcerated persons were excluded. Because nursing homes were limiting residents' ability to leave and re-enter the facilities, their participation was unlikely.
Participants were tested from 25 April to 29 April 2020 for active viral infection and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, which would indicate prior infection … We calculated the IFR by age, race, sex, and ethnicity on the basis of the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths as of 29 April 2020, divided by the number of infections.
Although nursing home residents were not tested, they represented 54.9% of Indiana's deaths. Thus, we excluded nursing home residents from all calculations (that is, deaths and infections).
To account for all infections, we added the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the testing period and noninstitutionalized COVID-19 deaths into the denominator …
Our random-sample study estimated 187 802 cumulative infections, to which 180 hospitalizations were added. The average age among all COVID-19 decedents was 76.9 years.
The overall noninstitutionalized infection fatality ratio was 0.26% … Persons younger than 40 years had an infection fatality ratio of 0.01%; those aged 60 or older had an infection fatality ratio of 1.71%. Whites had an infection fatality ratio of 0.18%; non-Whites had an infection fatality ratio of 0.59%.”
Continued below in stickied comment
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2020.09.16 13:17 gradschoolMD I am a 22 year old full-time graduate student making about $17,000/year from my three part-time jobs

EDIT: forgot my location in the title, I’m in upstate NY
If I were to write an R29-style header for this, I would say "Today: a 22 year old graduate student who makes $17,000/year and spends some of her money this week on bagels and laundry". I submitted a Money Diary this past March so I guess this is technically a follow-up, but my life looks very different now so I'd really consider them entirely separate.

Basic Information

Monthly Expenses

Yearly Expenses

Additional R29 questions/education expenses context because this is a grad school diary and I thought it would make sense to answer these!

Monday, September 7

7:45 AM I have an 8 AM nonprofit finance class this morning, but it’s online so I can sleep in super late. I wake up 15 minutes before class time, pour myself a cold brew that I make in my french press, throw on a sweatshirt over my pajamas and brush my hair before heading back to bed with my laptop for class. I’m able to keep my camera off for most of the zoom call, so it’s a relaxing way to start my week.
9:30 AM Another online class! This one requires cameras-on the whole time, so I leave my bed and go chill on my couch so I look slightly more presentable. In-class group work over Zoom is really just not the same- does anyone else hate team breakout rooms? Near the end of the lecture I start getting hungry, but realize I won't have time between the end of this class and the time I have to leave for campus to make food. I order a bagel for pickup at a cafe on the way to campus while the lecture finishes up. $3.08
10:45 AM Time to get ready for my first in-person class of the week. I throw on athletic shorts and a bra under the same pajama t-shirt and sweatshirt I was wearing earlier- yes, I’m a fashion icon. Grab my mask and I’m out the door, I pick up my pre-ordered bagel on the way and eat it while I walk. The class is okay, it's a quant modeling class which is way out of my comfort zone, so I'm glad that I'm able to take it in-person (at least until we inevitably get forced online by NY regulations).
1:15 PM I’m back in my apartment and heat up leftovers from last night’s dinner for lunch (cauliflower rice with roasted chickpeas, sweet potatoes, tofu, and a tahini garlic sauce) while listening to folklore. I think I've settled on august as my favorite song. Email my landlord about fixing a few things in my apartment that I've been trying to get him to sort out for literal weeks.
2:00 PM I have a planning meeting with the professor that I TA for. He’s super busy and bad at communication, so I’ve been handling the brunt of student questions so far. I made the mistake of letting the first-years add me to their class group chat, and they’ve been texting me at all hours. We talk about this and clarify what expectations should be for my TA position- he seems to want me to work 10-15 hours/week even though I was told 5-9 by the admin assistant who hired me. I can probably do 10-15, just not every week. We'll see.
2:30 PM The meeting transitions right into the class- I mostly just chill (camera on, unfortunately) listening to the lecture and taking attendance/marking participation, and nod sporadically when the professor makes reference to me. I won’t have many out-of-class responsibilities until grading starts, since I don’t have to run open office hours. After the class ends I work on organizing the course website and figuring out what the hell the prof is trying to do with the syllabus. Class hours and all prep/grading is billable time for TAs.
4:45 PM Realize that my fridge is pretty much empty except for a few random condiments and the rest of the leftovers that I had for lunch. I head out for a Wegman's run and buy enough for at least a week and a half- I used to go once a week, but with COVID I'm trying to spend less time in crowded grocery stores. I don't feel like cooking so I end up having some of the chana dal snacks and ice cream that I just got for dinner around 6:30. So healthy. $98.67, split out into food & home categories
7:30 PM Another online class! I hate night classes and strongly dislike online classes, so this seems like a recipe for disaster- however it's actually a really interesting course on inequality in education with a professor I think I'll really like, so hopefully it'll be worth it.
9:55 PM Class is over. 2 and a half hours is absolutely brutal for a nonstop Zoom meeting, especially at night and for my fifth class of the day. I shower and change into pajamas and catch the end of the Lightning-Islanders game. My favorite team and all of the teams I ended up bandwagoning are now out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, so I'm trying to find a new one to root for- the game was high-scoring and fun to watch but I still don't like these teams.
Daily total: $101.75

Tuesday, September 8

9:30 AM I get to sleep in a bit today! I was supposed to have a shift at the COVID center starting at 7:30, but the university keeps changing the hours of the sites (it's a total disaster), so now my shift starts at 10:45. First thing I do when I wake up is send a quick thank-you text to my sister who's going to visit our mom- she broke her foot last week and her boyfriend (they live in the same town in separate houses) is being shitty and not helping her, so my sister is leaving college to go stay with her for a bit. I'm a few hours closer to home, but I have in-person work and class whereas my sister's school is totally online this semester. I have some scrambled eggs with spinach and cheese for breakfast before I leave the house.
10:15 AM I'm out of homemade cold brew and have a bit of time, so I drive to Dunkin to grab a coffee. I reload my rewards card to pay for it, and earn a free drink for my next visit! I'm from Massachusetts and the fact that I actually have to go out of my way to drive to Dunkin in New York makes me a lil sad. $10.00
10:45 AM Time for work- one of the blessings of the COVID job is free parking in high-demand lots (where the yearly parking cost would be about $900) on campus near the test sites, so I drive there straight from Dunkin. Luckily it's not too crazy of a shift, but I end up seated at a station next to this really weird coworker who keeps making wack comments about his personal life that are extremely inappropriate for the workplace. I make note of his name and plan to email my supervisor later, he's making me kind of uncomfortable and he's saying awkward sexual shit around people who are at the site to get tested.
1:00 PM Done with my shift so it's time for class! It's another quant class where I'm wayyy out of my comfort zone, I haven't taken econometrics in three years and it looks like I'll have to re-learn a lot of stuff in order to keep up. The professor seems good though, which will make a big difference since my last econometrics professor was terrible.
3:00 PM I pick up my car and head home, and immediately am bombarded with texts from my TA class- the readings haven't been posted correctly to the class website. Quickly fix that and put out a few other related fires. Trying to run an entirely-online class where lots of the students are participating asynchronously from another continent is a nightmare, I shoot an email to the professor about monitoring asynchronous course participation since we need to come up with a system for that ASAP.
4:00 PM Heat up the last of the leftover veggies and cauliflower rice from a few days ago, and settle in to catch up on miscellaneous work stuff. I draft an email to my supervisor about my coworker and have my mom look it over (with names redacted) since she works in HR. I'm going to wait to send it for at least a day so if he gets written up maybe he won't realize it's me that prompted it. I wash my bedsheets and towels in my building's coin-op washedryer. $3.00
9:00 PM My meal schedule has been way off today, with a super late lunch and dinner. I make this recipe, with a plant-based sausage added for protein. I eat 95% vegetarian and I'm making a conscious effort this year to eat vegetables multiple times a day.
1:15 AM After another few hours of scrolling through TikTok and finishing fixing the disaster of a website for my TA class, I head to bed.
Daily Total: $13.00

Wednesday, September 9

7:00 AM It's too early and I went to bed too late. The 8 AM online class I had on Monday is in-person on Wednesday, and I'm kind of regretting not signing up for the fully online version since it means I have to actually get ready in the morning. I drag myself out of bed and into the shower, and before I head out I order a coffee and a breakfast sandwich to pick up from Starbucks on my walk to campus. $7.34
9:30 AM Second class of the day, online. I'm realizing I don't really like this course and will probably try to find another one to replace it before the drop deadline. I find a quiet-ish courtyard on campus to go on Zoom, since all of the normal study spaces are closed. This is not gonna work once it gets really cold in upstate NY. While listening to the Zoom lecture, I see that my manager at my COVID job has scheduled me for a last-minute shift that conflicts with a class tomorrow- I email her and hope that she sees it in time. This job creates 8-hour shifts in the middle of the day with no easy option for partial hours, and then they wonder why they can't get their student employees on the schedule.
1:00 PM Head home after my third class of the day. I was distracted the whole time, trying to sort through TA and other work stuff (my shift got fixed at the COVID job, thank god) during the lecture, so I'll probably have to skim the slides again later. I chatted with a classmate in my cohort afterwards for a bit, and realize that that's the first time I've talked to someone outside of my family in a non-work capacity in over a week. Yikes. I make lunch (roasted asparagus and goat cheese pasta, are you sensing the "roasted veggie + pasta/rice + cheese" theme that makes up the majority of my meals?) and chill a bit before my TA class starts.
6:00 PM After finishing my TA class and working through some course readings, I make a kale salad with roasted chickpeas, sweet potatoes, goat cheese, and a tahini dressing for dinner. While I'm cooking dinner my dad calls, and I talk to him for about half an hour- we haven't talked for two weeks so I update him on a lot of stuff. My sister also texts and says that our mom gave her a lecture about how she needs to be nicer to the boyfriend- we both agree that we're not quite ready to go back to being pleasant to him yet, and would like to hear his reasoning and perhaps an apology for being so unhelpful that my sister had to drive four hours to do what he should have been doing all along.
10:00 PM I'm not having a great night, feeling quite depressed and socially isolated. I struggled socially as an undergrad and didn't really have any close friends, and now that the majority of my friends/acquaintances from undergrad have left and I haven't made any friends in my short time in pandemic-grad-school, I'm stuck by myself most of the time. It's really difficult to look out my window and see houses full of friends hanging out on their porch on a beautiful night and wishing I could have had that while knowing I never will. I end up going to bed early since I'm just tired and sad.
Daily Total: $7.34

Thursday, September 10

9:00 AM I wake up feeling slightly better than last night, but still feel a bit worn out. My sister texts that my mom now needs to be in a cast for 6 weeks. Hopefully the boyfriend can get his shit together. I make a breakfast sandwich with eggs, cheese, and spinach. I hang around my apartment for a while since work doesn't start until 11:45.
11:30 AM On my way to work, I stop and grab a coffee at a cafe ($4.16) and then go to 7/11 to pick up a notebook for class and a pack of batteries that I need for my string lights ($14.56).
1:15 PM After spending an hour and a half at work, I take my break in order to go to class. I'm supposed to go in-person, but I can't make it across campus fast enough and end up just going to the Zoom session. I am going to need to do some serious studying for this class, stats and econometrics is like another language to me.
2:45 PM Class is over and I'm back to work. There's a nonstop stream of students and staff coming to get tested, I personally go through at least 100 people over the course of three hours. Near the end of my shift, my coworker (the same one I'm reporting, actually) checks his email and finds out that he's been given a $3/hour raise and is now benefits-eligible. I immediately race to my phone, but there's no email. Everyone tries to figure out who qualified for the raise, and we come to the conclusion that student workers didn't get it. I might reach out to my supervisor about that, seems kind of ridiculous given that we do the exact same job. I don't need benefits and probably don't qualify anyways but the raise would be awesome.
7:00 PM I get home from work and eat some of the leftover kale salad, lentil chips and a homemade za'atar goat cheese dip, and an apple with peanut butter. I'm so hungry since I haven't eaten since the egg sandwich at 9 AM.
11:00 PM I re-watch the two econometrics lectures from this week– a huge perk of Zoom class is recorded lectures– and try to take more detailed notes and go through the motions of the coding myself. I still don't really get it, and feel pretty dumb listening to the intelligent questions that my classmates (half of whom are undergrads) are asking. Math in all forms has been a weak point for me since middle school, but I'm trying to power through so I can enter the workforce with at least some quant skills.
Daily Total: $18.72

Friday, September 11

9:00 AM Wake up and scroll through my social media for a bit, and have the rest of the kale salad for breakfast. Not really a traditional breakfast but I don't feel like cooking anything. I have my orientation for my research job this morning, and I think it's going to be a great experience! The two other grad researchers are both students in my program, so it'll be nice to get to know some more people. My official start date is next week, though I'm being paid for training. Once I'm done on that Zoom call, I head to work at the COVID center at 11.
3:00 PM I finally get my lunch break- there's not much open, so I'm limited to the one cafe near my work site. I pick up a bagel and a coffee, and the women who work there give me free coffee add-ons (oat milk and vanilla syrup) since they recognize me after I did their COVID tests in the morning. I love the dining workers on my campus. I have some extra dining dollars from last semester that rolled over due to COVID, so I use the last of those and pay the balance with my debit card. $1.06, remainder was pre-paid from last spring
7:00 PM Finally home- I decide to clean my apartment for a bit before showering, and I'm disgusted by how dirty it got. I'm a huge clean freak and this apartment isn't super well-kept (thank you college town slumlords!) and has a lot of cobwebs/dirty areas, so it causes basically a constant undercurrent of anxiety. I've recently been thinking a lot about my old apartment, which was newly renovated and a 2-bedroom which would have cost me $1,000/month for my share this year. My desire to live alone and be in the area where I thought I could best make a last-ditch effort at meeting people and making friends won out over my love for that apartment, and I'm pretty seriously regretting it at this point given the whole COVID situation. Depending on how the spring semester shakes out, I might try to sublet it and find a different place.
9:00 PM I'm still feeling a bit anxious and unsettled after cleaning, and don't really have the mental fortitude to cook tonight. A $5 coupon from GrubHub arrives in my email inbox like they can read my mind. I order paneer makhani to pick up from the Indian restaurant a block away from my apartment, and try to turn it into a positive thought about the apartment itself- my old place wasn't walking distance from Indian food, this one is. $10.07
11:00 PM My mom sends me a link to a video that she found of my school's 9/11 memorial dedication. We lost 21 alums that day, and a permanent memorial was dedicated a few years ago. I've gone a few times to see it in person and met some of the families through my previous jobs, so I spend some time watching the video. I was just shy of 4 years old on 9/11 so I obviously don't remember much, but going to a school with a large number of students from NYC almost guarantees that everyone knows someone with a personal connection. It always feels a bit solemn around here on the day.
4:00 AM I couldn't sleep. Finally pass out sometime between 3:30 and 4.
Daily Total: $11.13

Saturday, September 12

9:00 AM Drag myself out of bed and make scrambled eggs with cheese, and some cold brew that's been sitting in the french press for several days with the coffee grinds- this is basically liquid cocaine, it's extremely caffeinated but I'll need that today. I leave my apartment around 9:40 and start walking to work.
10:00 AM Today isn't too crazy, which is unexpected given that the site I'm working at is usually one of the more crowded ones. The shift supervisor today is the sweetest woman, she comes around and takes our individual coffee orders and brings them to us at our stations. I take quick breaks whenever I can to run to the corner to slip my mask off and take a drink. I chat to some of the other student workers when we have longer periods of down time, they seem really nice. I might try to work this site more often and get to know them better.
3:00 I drew the short straw once again and got the late lunch break- nothing's open on campus since it's Saturday, so I run back to the cafe near my apartment and order a turkey sandwich. I know I need to start bringing my own lunch, but we have no microwaves and the only fridges we have at the sites are for test tubes and ice packs so that makes it a bit difficult. $9.08
6:00 PM Done at work and headed home- I make a roasted cauliflower pasta that uses the rest of the spinach as well, and save some for tomorrow's dinner.
10:00 PM Lounging around in bed and watching the Vegas-Dallas game. I think I'd rather have one of these teams win the Cup than either of the teams in the ECF.
1:30 AM Fall asleep

Sunday, September 13

9:00 AM Up for another day of work. I make some eggs and cut up an apple with peanut butter.
10:00 AM My job today is as a greeter, so I'm not doing the actual registration and test observation, and am instead in charge of getting people lined up and dealing with the logistics of the site. A lot of the people in the line tell me that they were supposed to have an appointment at another site, but they showed up and it was dark and no one was there to deal with the 75 people waiting in line. We realize there's been a huge staffing miscommunication with our local health system partner, and this happened at three sites. What a clusterfuck. I also committed the cardinal sin of autumn in New York by not appropriately layering- it's suddenly 50 and raining, and I'm freezing my ass off sitting outside in leggings and a t-shirt.
2:30 PM Lunch break- I go to the one place on campus open on Sunday afternoons to grab a salad. $8.70
3:00 PM Still a decent flow of people coming through the site since we're still taking over from the sites that unexpectedly closed. By the end of the day, we've tested over 1,100 people just at this one site. I'm developing a horrible crick in my neck from turning to look and point each person to where they need to go.
6:00 PM Home from work. I heat up the rest of the pasta from last night and try to massage my neck a bit- I can tell it's going to hurt tomorrow, feeling like I'm 82 instead of 22. I prep some cold brew for tomorrow morning.
10:30 PM I'm absolutely exhausted, so I fall asleep around 10:30 for the first time in weeks. Hopefully this means I'll be well-rested for my 8 AM tomorrow.
Daily total: $8.70

Monday, September 14

7:45 AM I wake up feeling somewhat well-rested, but my neck is still really hurting. I grab some of the cold brew from the fridge and go to my online class.
9:15 AM I find a class that I'm interested in to replace the one that I'm thinking of dropping, and start getting ready to go to it to check it out. Just as I'm about to leave, I realize my neck is getting to be absolutely unbearable and I don't think I can make the walk up to campus with my backpack without a lot of pain. I shoot the professor a quick email asking for the Zoom link, and he manages to get back to me before the class starts! I join the online section and like the course, so I plan to make the official switch in my schedule. The class I don't like is taught by my advisor (who I'm hoping to TA for in the spring), so that might be a little awkward when I leave.
11:30 AM I make some pasta with a veggie sausage for lunch and go to class- this is usually an in-person class for me but I stay home and go to the online section today because I'm still in pain.
2:30 PM TA class- I'm required to have my camera on, and after comfortably laying down all day I feel like I'm dying because of the position that I'm being forced to keep my neck in. I periodically turn my camera off to lay down for a minute and scream into my pillow before coming back and pretending that nothing's wrong.
4:30 PM I drive to a laundromat to wash my clothes- I'm out of coins and need to go to the laundromat to get them from the machine, so I do my wash there instead of in my building. While I wait for my wash I call my grandma and catch up for a bit, and when I move my clothes to the dryer I go to Target to return some stuff I bought for my apartment and get painkillers. Have a mini-breakdown in the parking lot of Target because I'm so anxious about my apartment and the cost and how it's not kept-up and how I'm feeling so much regret about the lease. I send a frantic 3-paragraph text to my mom and dad about this and tell them that I want to try to find a subletter and come home. $6.00 for laundry, +$51.69 in refunds from Target (not included in breakdown), $4.07 for Ibuprofen
7:30 PM Dinner (eggs on toast) and online class. I'm really distracted, I hate Zoom class. My mom texts me throughout and I reply for a bit, and kind of unload about feeling super lonely and stressed. My dad calls around 10 after class is over, and we talk for a bit. I'm not sure he really gets where I'm coming from but he does his best to provide support, in an emotionally-stunted-middle-aged-dad kind of way (which is mostly just him talking about how I always "manage to power through" and referencing sunk costs and uncertainty). Honestly, I probably won't sublet the apartment just because I don't know if I'm ready to move all my shit again and because it's a buyer's market for sublets right now, but I really wish I had tried to get out of my lease before it started in August. I always have a lot of anxiety and regrets about large purchases, so this is nothing new. What I probably need instead of a sublet is to go back to therapy.
2:30 AM I'm still up writing a paper, so I answer a text in the group chat for my TA class about the paper- the student who asked apologizes for bothering me so late, she's abroad and didn't realize what time it was in NY. I'm fine with answering if I'm up, but I'm going to have to force myself to not answer until the morning so they don't start expecting that kind of immediate response from me.
Daily Total: $10.07

WEEKLY TOTAL: $179.79

CATEGORY TOTAL
Food and Drink $148.18 total ($53.49 from restaurants/cafes and $94.69 for groceries)
Fun and Entertainment $0
Home and Health $8.05
Clothes and Beauty $0
Transport $0
Other $23.56

Notes

This was a typical week for me- I work a lot, I spend a lot on food, and I don't spend on much else beyond my monthly expenses. Obviously I don't buy $100 of groceries every week, since those last about two weeks- I usually shop on Mondays, restock on fresh veggies at the Wednesday farmer's market the next week, which runs me about $15-20, and then go to Wegmans again on Monday. I'm trying to spend less on coffee since I realize it's ridiculous to buy a $4 drink every morning when I can buy an $8 bag of beans and get 12 cups out of it.
As I get more into my research job, I'll be shifting some hours from the COVID job to that- it pays more and is more beneficial to my career, and I don't have the physical or mental energy to continue at this pace for the COVID job. This pay cycle (Thurs 9/10 to Wed 9/16) I worked 32.8 hours, which will probably be typical as a weekly total for this semester- just with a different breakdown by job (6-10 TA, 15 research, 10-15 COVID). This coming week I'm scheduled right up against the 40-hour limit, with 39.6. And yes, I do bill my time answering questions at 2:30 AM, I just put it on my timecard as a more normal time lol
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2020.09.15 22:53 _mr0 test

Alabama Oct. 19th https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voteregister-to-vote Doesn't have early In Person n/a https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/absentee-ballot-applications County Absentee Election Manager's Office Received Nov. 2nd https://myinfo.alabamavotes.gov/VoterView/AbsenteeBallotSearch.do For absentee ballots, check "I have a physical illness or infirmity which prevents my attendance at the polls". All voters may request absentee for this year only.
Alaska Oct. 4th https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/voterregistration.php Oct 19th - Nov 2nd https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/AIPEVEvents.php https://elections.alaska.gov/Core/AKVoteEarly.php Absentee voting location Postmarked Nov. 3rd https://myvoterinformation.alaska.gov/
Arizona Oct. 5th https://azsos.gov/elections/voting-election/register-vote-or-update-your-current-voter-information Oct 7th - Oct 30th https://my.arizona.vote/PortalList.aspx same - sign up for PEVL when registering Dropbox (locations are on County Recorder's site) Received Nov. 3rd https://my.arizona.vote/AbsenteeTracker.aspx
Arkansas Oct. 5th https://www.sos.arkansas.gov/elections/voter-information/voter-registration-information Oct 19th - Nov 2nd County clerk's office; see website for other locations https://www.sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/elections/Absentee_Ballot_Application_1.pdf County Clerk's office Received Nov. 2nd https://www.voterview.ar-nova.org/voterview
California Oct. 20th https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voter-registration/ Oct 5th - Nov 2nd https://caearlyvoting.sos.ca.gov/ same - check "yes" for voting by mail when registering Dropbox Postmarked Nov. 3rd and received November 20th https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-status/wheres-my-ballot/
Colorado Nov. 3rd (Oct. 26th for VBM) https://www.sos.state.co.us/votepages/pub/home.xhtml Doesn't have early In Person n/a All-mail election See County Clerk and Recorder's site Received Nov. 3rd https://www.sos.state.co.us/votepages/pub/olvfindVoterReg.xhtml
Connecticut Oct. 29th https://portal.ct.gov/SOTS/Election-Services/Voter-Information/Voter-Registration-Information Doesn't have early In Person n/a https://portal.ct.gov/SOTS/Election-Services/Voter-Information/Absentee-Voting Town Clerk's office Received Nov. 3rd https://portaldir.ct.gov/sots/LookUp.aspx
Delaware Oct. 3rd https://elections.delaware.gov/votevotereg.shtml Doesn't have early In Person n/a https://elections.delaware.gov/services/voteabsentee/citizen.shtml Department of Elections office Received Nov. 3rd https://ivote.de.gov/VoterView Delaware will mail absentee applications to all residents. If you need to complete the online form, choose Reason #3 "I am sick..." as your reason
Florida Oct. 5th https://registertovoteflorida.gov/ Oct 19th - Nov 1st (varies by county; must offer at least one week Oct. 24th-31st) See your Supervisor of Elections' website https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/for-voters/voting/vote-by-mail/ Any early voting location during early voting, or dropbox on Election Day (see County Supervisor's office) Received Nov. 3rd https://registration.elections.myflorida.com/CheckVoterStatus
Georgia Oct. 5th https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/Elections/register_to_vote Oct 12th - Oct 30th https://www.mvp.sos.ga.gov/MVP/mvp.do https://ballotrequest.sos.ga.gov/ County registrar's office or a dropbox (see their website for location info) Received Nov. 3rd https://www.mvp.sos.ga.gov/MVP/mvp.do
Hawaii Oct. 5th or Oct 20 through Nov 3 in-person at a voting service center https://elections.hawaii.gov/frequently-asked-questions/voter-registration/ Oct 20th - Nov 2nd Any voter service center in your county https://elections.hawaii.gov/hawaii-votes-by-mail/ (All-mail in 2020) Any voter service center or place of deposit Received Nov. 3rd https://ballotstatus.hawaii.gov/Default Hawaii will automatically mail ballots to all registered voters - keep address up to date
Idaho Oct. 21st https://idahovotes.gov/ Oct 19th - Oct 30th See county clerk's website https://elections.sos.idaho.gov/ElectionLink/ElectionLink/AbsenteeSearch.aspx County Clerk's office Received Nov 3rd https://idahovotes.gov/
Illinois Oct. 18th online or Oct 19 through Nov 3 in person at a grace period location https://ova.elections.il.gov/ Sept 24th - Nov 2nd https://www.elections.il.gov/VotingAndRegistrationSystems/EarlyVotingLocationsSearch.aspx https://elections.il.gov/electionoperations/VotingByMail.aspx County Election Authority's office, or a dropbox (see their site for locations) Postmarked Nov. 3rd Done separately by counties
Indiana Oct. 5th http://www.indianavoters.com/ Oct 6th - Nov 2nd County Elections Administrator's office; possibly others (see their website) Same County Election Administrator's office Received Nov. 3rd at noon https://indianavoters.in.gov/
Iowa Oct. 24th online or at Auditor's office through Nov. 3rd https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterinformation/voterregistration.html Oct 5th - Nov 2nd County Auditor's office https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/electioninfo/absenteemail.html County Auditor's office Postmarked Nov. 2nd AND received Nov. 9th https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/absenteeballotstatus/absentee/search))
Kansas Oct. 13th https://www.kdor.ks.gov/apps/voterreg/default.aspx Oct 14th - Nov 2nd See County elections officer's website https://www.sos.ks.gov/forms/elections/AV1.pdf County elections officer's office, or a dropbox (see site for locations) Postmarked Nov. 3rd and received Nov. 6th https://myvoteinfo.voteks.org/voterview/
Kentucky Oct. 5th https://elect.ky.gov/registertovote/Pages/default.aspx Oct 13th - Nov 2nd See County Clerk's website https://vrsws.sos.ky.gov/abrweb/ County Clerk's office - website may have dropbox locations Received Nov 3rd https://vrsws.sos.ky.gov/ovrweb/govoteky All voters will be allowed to vote by mail in KY this year.
Louisiana Oct. 5th / Oct. 14th online https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/RegisterToVote/Pages/default.aspx Oct 20th - Oct 27th (Excluding the 25th) https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/earlyvoting https://www.sos.la.gov/OurOffice/PublishedDocuments/COVID-19%20VR2%20Absentee%20by%20Mail%20Application%20(Rev.%204-20)%20Ver.%201.pdf%20Ver.%201.pdf) Parish Registrar of voters' office Received Nov. 2nd https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/ Must be high-risk for COVID-related illness, under quarantine, experiencing symptoms, or caring for someone high-risk to qualify for a COVID-based absentee ballot
Maine Oct. 13th online, up to Nov. 3rd in person https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/voter-info/voterguide.html Oct 5th - Oct 29th Town office or City Hall https://www.maine.gov/cgi-bin/online/AbsenteeBallot/index.pl Clerk's office Received Nov 3rd https://www.maine.gov/cgi-bin/online/AbsenteeBallot/ballot-status.pl
Maryland Oct. 13th, Same day Reg https://elections.maryland.gov/voter_registration/index.html Oct 26th - Nov 2nd https://elections.maryland.gov/voting/early_voting.html https://voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/OnlineVoterRegistration/InstructionsStep1 Any early voting or Election Day voting center, polling place, drop box, or your Local Board of Elections. See their website for locations Postmarked Nov 3rd https://voterservices.elections.maryland.gov/VoterSearch
Massachusetts Oct. 24th https://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/eleifv/howreg.htm Oct 23rd - Oct 30th https://www.sec.state.ma.us/earlyvotingweb/earlyvotingsearch.aspx http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/eleev/early-voting-by-mail.htm Local Election Office or dropbox Postmarked Nov 3rd https://www.sec.state.ma.us/wheredoivotema/track/trackmyballot.aspx
Michigan Oct. 19th online, up to Nov. 3rd in person at City Hall https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,1607,7-127-1633_8716_8726_47669-175878--,00.html Sept 19th - Nov 2nd Clerk's office https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/avapplication Clerk's office or dropbox Received Nov. 3rd https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/VoteIndex Dropbox locations - may change
Minnesota Oct. 13th, same day Reg during early and Election Day voting http://www.sos.state.mn.us/elections-voting/register-to-vote/ Sept 18th - Nov 2nd County elections office; possibly other locations - see website https://www.sos.state.mn.us/elections-voting/other-ways-to-vote/vote-early-by-mail/ County elections office (may include dropbox locations) Postmarked Nov. 3rd https://mnvotes.sos.state.mn.us/AbsenteeBallotStatus.aspx
Mississippi Oct. 5th https://www.sos.ms.gov/Vote/Pages/default.aspx Doesn't have early In Person n/a https://www.ms.gov/sos/voter_registration/documents/voter_registration_application.pdf Clerk's office Received Oct. 31st in person, Nov. 2nd by mail https://www.msegov.com/sos/voter_registration/AmIRegistered MS has no special provisions to allow absentee voting during COVID.
Missouri Oct. 7th https://s1.sos.mo.gov/elections/goVoteMissouri/register.aspx Doesn't have early In Person n/a https://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/goVoteMissouri/howtovote#Mail Local Elections Authority (ABSENTEE BALLOTS ONLY - Mail ballots must be sent through the mail) Received Nov. 3rd https://s1.sos.mo.gov/elections/voterlookup/ Most mail-in and absentee ballots in MO must be notarized - can be done free at these locations
Montana Oct. 26th, or up to Nov. 3rd atdesignated locations https://sosmt.gov/elections/vote/ Oct 4th - Nov 1st Elections Administrator's office Same Elections Administrator Received Nov. 2nd at noon https://app.mt.gov/voterinfo/
Nebraska Oct. 16th https://www.nebraska.gov/apps-sos-voter-registration/ Oct 4th - Nov 2nd County Elections Office https://sos.nebraska.gov/elections/voter-forms County Elections Official Received Nov. 3rd https://www.votercheck.necvr.ne.gov/voterview
Nevada Oct. 29th online, or same day at polls https://www.nvsos.gov/sosvoterservices/Registration/Step0.aspx Oct 17th - Oct 30th See County Clerk's site https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/absentee-voting (All-mail in 2020) Drop-off location (locations are on County Clerk's site), or Clerk's office Postmarked Nov 3rd and received Nov 10th https://www.nvsos.gov/votersearch/ Nevada just passed a law to mail a ballot to all voters, but this may be challenged in court.
New Hampshire Nov. 3rd https://sos.nh.gov/HowRegVote.aspx Doesn't have early In Person n/a https://sos.nh.gov/media/rs0ly4xu/absentee-ballot-app-8-20-covid.pdf Clerk's office Received Nov 3rd https://app.sos.nh.gov/Public/AbsenteeBallot.aspx
New Jersey October 13th https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/voter-registration.shtml Doesn't have early In Person n/a Same - check box on registration form County Board of Elections Postmarked Nov. 3rd and received November 10th (exec. order) https://voter.svrs.nj.gov/auth/sign-in
New Mexico Oct. 6th https://www.sos.state.nm.us/voting-and-elections/voter-information-portal/voter-registration-information/ Oct 17th - Oct 31st See County Clerk's site https://www.sos.state.nm.us/voting-and-elections/voting-faqs/absentee-voting-by-mail/ County Clerk's office or Voter Convenience Center (see clerk's website for locations Received Nov. 3rd https://voterportal.servis.sos.state.nm.us/WhereToVote.aspx?tab=AbsenteeTracker If the absentee ballot tracker doesn't work, check with your County Clerk
New York Oct. 9th https://dmv.ny.gov/more-info/electronic-voter-registration-application Oct 24th - Nov 1st https://www.voteearlyny.org/ https://www.elections.ny.gov/votingabsentee.html County Board of Elections, or any early voting or Election Day polling place Postmarked Nov. 3rd and received Nov. 10th https://voterlookup.elections.ny.gov/
North Carolina Oct. 9th (or during early voting) https://www.ncsbe.gov/Voters/Registering-to-Vote Oct 15th - Oct 31st https://vt.ncsbe.gov/OSSite https://www.ncsbe.gov/Voting-Options/Absentee-Voting County Board of Elections or any early voting site (during early voting) Postmarked Nov 3rd, received Nov 6th Upcoming (by Sep 1) Online absentee ballot request and tracking portals upcoming (Sep 1)
North Dakota No voter registration n/a Oct 19th - Nov 2nd https://vip.sos.nd.gov/PortalListDetails.aspx?ptlhPKID=50&ptlPKID=7#content-start https://vip.sos.nd.gov/PortalListDetails.aspx?ptlhPKID=53&ptlPKID=7 County Auditor's office Received Nov. 2nd https://vip.sos.nd.gov/AbsenteeTracker.aspx
Ohio Oct. 5th https://olvr.ohiosos.gov/ Oct 6th - Nov 1st County Board of Elections (except Lucas and Summit counties - see site for info https://www.ohiosos.gov/publications/#abr Local Board of Elections Postmarked Nov. 2nd and received Nov. 13th https://www.sos.state.oh.us/elections/voters/toolkit/ballot-tracking/
Oklahoma Oct. 9th https://www.ok.gov/elections/Voter_Info/Register_to_Vote/index.html Oct 29th - Oct 30th. County Election Board https://www.ok.gov/elections/Voter_Info/Absentee_Voting/ County Election Board Received Nov. 2nd https://www.ok.gov/elections/OVP.html
Oregon Oct. 13th https://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/registration.aspx?lang=en Doesn't have early In Person n/a All-mail election Drop box Received Nov. 3rd https://sos.oregon.gov/voting/pages/myvote.aspx?lang=en
Pennsylvania Oct. 19th https://www.votespa.com/Register-to-Vote/Pages/How-to-Register-to-Vote.aspx Doesn't have early In Person n/a https://www.pavoterservices.pa.gov/OnlineAbsenteeApplication/#/OnlineAbsenteeBegin County Board of Elections Received Nov. 3rd https://www.pavoterservices.pa.gov/pages/ballottracking.aspx
Rhode Island Oct. 4th https://vote.sos.ri.gov/Home/RegistertoVote?ActiveFlag=1 Oct. 14th - Nov. 2nd Local Board of Canvassers' office https://vote.sos.ri.gov/VoteVotebyMail?ActiveFlag=4 Local Board of Canvassers Received Nov. 3rd https://vote.sos.ri.gov/
South Carolina Oct. 5th https://www.scvotes.gov/south-carolina-voter-registration-information Doesn't have early In Person n/a https://info.scvotes.sc.gov/eng/voterinquiry/VoterInformationRequest.aspx?PageMode=AbsenteeRequest Local Elections Office Received Nov. 3rd https://info.scvotes.sc.gov/eng/voterinquiry/VoterInformationRequest.aspx?PageMode=AbsenteeInfo Absentees may not be allowed for the general election - they were for the primary.
South Dakota Oct. 19th https://sdsos.gov/elections-voting/voting/register-to-vote/default.aspx Sept 18th - Nov 2nd County Auditor's office https://sdsos.gov/elections-voting/voting/absentee-voting.aspx County Auditor's office Received Nov. 2nd https://vip.sdsos.gov/viplogin.aspx
Tennessee Oct. 5th https://ovr.govote.tn.gov/ Oct 14th - Oct 29th See Local Election Commission's office https://sos.tn.gov/products/elections/absentee-voting n/a - must be submitted by mail. In-person delivery is specifically not allowed. Received Nov. 3rd https://sos.tn.gov/products/elections/voter-registration-information-lookup-absentee-mail-ballot-status-tracker
Texas Oct. 5th https://www.votetexas.gov/register-to-vote/index.html Oct 13th - Oct 30th https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/votereqabbm.shtml Early voting clerk Received Nov. 3rd https://webservices.sos.state.tx.us/FPCA/index.aspx Not all voters are eligible for mail-in ballots in Texas
Utah Oct. 23rd https://secure.utah.gov/voterreg/index.html Oct 20th - Oct 30th https://votesearch.utah.gov/voter-search/search/search-by-address/how-and-where-can-i-vote Same - check box on registration form Dropbox Received Nov. 3rd https://votesearch.utah.gov/voter-search/search/search-by-votetrack-mail-ballot
Vermont Nov. 3rd https://sos.vermont.gov/elections/voters/registration/ Sept 19th - Nov 2nd Town Clerk's office https://sos.vermont.gov/elections/voters/voter-faqs/absentee-voting-faqs/#q1 Town Clerk's office Received Nov. 2nd https://mvp.vermont.gov/ All voters will be sent a mail-in ballot for November
Virginia Oct. 13th https://vote.elections.virginia.gov/VoterInformation Sept 19th - Oct 31st https://vote.elections.virginia.gov/voterinformation/publiccontactlookup Same Local registrar's office Postmarked Nov. 3rd and received Nov. 6th https://vote.elections.virginia.gov/VoterInformation
Washington October 26th online; November 3rd in person https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/register.aspx Oct 16th - Nov 3rd https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors/# All-mail election Many locations - see County Auditor's website Postmarked Nov. 3rd https://voter.votewa.gov/WhereToVote.aspx Washington will mail ballots. Make sure your address is up to date.
Washington D.C. Oct. 13th online. Nov 3rd in person https://www.dcboe.org/FAQS/Voter-Registration Oct 24th - Nov 3rd https://earlyvoting.dcboe.org/ https://www.dcboe.org/Voters/Absentee-Voting/Request-an-Absentee-Ballot Drop box Recieved Nov 3rd https://www.dcboe.org/Voters/Absentee-Voting/Track-Absentee-Ballot
West Virginia Oct. 13th https://ovr.sos.wv.gov/RegisteLanding Oct 21st - Oct 31st Contact clerk for more information https://sos.wv.gov/elections/Pages/AbsenteeVotingInformation.aspx Clerk's office Recieved Nov 4th https://services.sos.wv.gov/Elections/VoteAbsenteeBallotTracking
Wisconsin Oct. 13th online; can register in person at clerk's office until October 30th, and on Election Day at the polls. https://myvote.wi.gov/en-US/RegisterToVote Oct 20th - Nov 1st Municipal clerk's office https://myvote.wi.gov/en-US/VoteAbsentee Municipal clerk's office or dropbox (see their website for locations) Recieved Nov 3rd https://myvote.wi.gov/en-us/MyVoterInfo
Wyoming October 20th https://sos.wyo.gov/Elections/State/RegisteringToVote.aspx Sept 18th - Nov 2nd County clerk's office https://sos.wyo.gov/Elections/State/AbsenteeVoting.aspx County clerk's office Recieved Nov 2nd Contact your County Clerk
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2020.09.11 22:33 coRvid_ice_elation More Evidence Masks Don’t Work to Prevent COVID-19 [FACT CHECKED]

More Evidence Masks Don’t Work to Prevent COVID-19 [FACT CHECKED]

STORY AT-A-GLANCE

  • According to British deputy chief medical officer Dr. Jenny Harries, the evidence for face masks is “not very strong in either direction.” Sweden’s coronavirus pandemic response leader, Dr. Anders Tegnell, dismisses the scientific evidence for mask-wearing, calling it “astonishingly weak”
  • White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx is urging Americans to wear their mask whenever they’re around others, including other household members, while admitting that “when people start to realize that 99% of us are going to be fine,” compliance becomes “more and more difficult”
  • A 2015 study found health care workers wearing cloth masks had a 72% higher rate of laboratory-confirmed respiratory virus infections, when compared to those wearing medical masks or controls (who used standard practices that included occasional medical mask wearing)
  • A working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) suggests draconian lockdown measures implemented in many countries, including the U.S., have achieved little in terms of stemming the death toll; regardless of policy, deaths per day stop increasing within 20 to 30 days of passing a threshold of 25 deaths
  • According to the NBER, lockdowns, closures, travel restrictions, stay-home orders, event bans, quarantines, curfews and mask mandates do not seem to affect virus transmission rates overall, and governments have likely acted in error
According to an August 28, 2020, article1,2 in The Telegraph, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson now “insists he does not want to see face coverings in schools.” During a question and answer session posted on Facebook, Johnson said:3,4
“There's no need for it. Indeed, there's a need not to have it because obviously it's very, very difficult to teach or to learn with a face mask on.”
British deputy chief medical officer Dr. Jenny Harries stated the evidence for face masks is “not very strong in either direction,” but that advice may change in the future should scientific evidence emerge. For now, head teachers will be allowed to make their own decisions about mask adherence in school hallways and communal areas.
“Dr. Harries said that the wearing of masks in hallways and communal areas ‘can be very reassuring in those enclosed environments’ despite the lack of definitive science,” The Telegraph reports, adding:5,6
“She also urged people to be ‘very kind’ to those with disabilities who were ‘struggling’ with coronavirus measures such as the wearing of face coverings. ‘Many of the actions that we have quite rightly taken to control the pandemic can be quite difficult for people with all sorts of sensory disabilities,’ she admitted.”

Sweden’s Pandemic Response to Masking

Sweden is one of the few countries where draconian pandemic responses have not been widely implemented. Throughout the pandemic, most of the country’s businesses have remained open, and people have to a large degree been allowed to go about their lives as usual, albeit with the general recommendation to social distance whenever possible.
According to an August 10, 2020, article7,8 in The Times, the epidemiologist in charge of Sweden’s coronavirus pandemic response, Dr. Anders Tegnell, “has dismissed the scientific evidence for mask-wearing as ‘astonishingly weak’ and suggested that making face coverings mandatory could backfire.”
Tegnell insists the only viable solution in the long run is to trust people and give them the responsibility to make sensible decisions for themselves.
“It is a Swedish tradition that we give a lot of responsibility to individuals and influence them. So, we never saw any reason to take more drastic measures … I’m surprised that we don’t have more or better studies showing what effect masks actually have.
Countries such as Spain and Belgium have made their populations wear masks but their infection numbers have still risen. The belief that masks can solve our problem is in any case very dangerous,” Tegnell said in a recent interview with a German newspaper.9,10
Interestingly, despite the country’s lack of lockdowns and mandatory mask requirements, infections have now “dwindled away to a negligible level” on their own.
According to The Times, as of August 10, 2020, Sweden’s total death toll for COVID-19 stood at 5,763. At the peak of the pandemic in mid-April, just under 100 daily COVID-19 related deaths were recorded. By early August, the average death toll was down to one or two per day. Positive test results are also trending downward.
📷

Birx Ridiculously Urges Mask Wearing at Home

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the fact that the curve has been flattened and the total COVID-19 death rate has been dramatically reduced11 doesn’t seem to make a difference. At the end of August, White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx urged Americans to stay vigilant, and to wear their mask whenever they’re around others, including other household members. According to CNN:12
“Birx urged Americans to take personal responsibility, especially if they want to help keep economies open. ‘Right now, we gain freedom through wearing our masks and socially distancing,’ she said.”
Ironically, in mid-August, during a visit to Little Rock, Arkansas, Birx gave the following statements, reported by Eldorado News-Times:13
“‘I’ve been so struck by the number of Americans across the country that have just had it,’ she said. ‘Mortality decreases’ have also complicated matters … ‘When people start to realize that 99 percent of us are going to be fine, it becomes more and more difficult’ to get people to comply, she said.”

What Is the Real Risk of COVID-19 at This Point?

Indeed, it now appears the mortality rate of COVID-19 may be right around or lower than that of influenza. During an August 16, 2020, lecture at The Doctors for Disaster Preparedness14 convention, Dr. Lee Merritt15 pointed out that, based on deaths per capita — which is the only way to get a true sense of the lethality of this disease — the death rate for COVID-19 is around 0.009%.
That number is based on a global total death toll of 709,000, and a global population of 7.8 billion. This also means the average person’s chance of surviving an encounter with SARS-CoV-2 is 99.991%. The U.S. area with the highest death rate, New York, has a death per capita rate of 0.17%. Merritt’s lecture with this information is featured in “How Medical Technocracy Made the Plandemic Possible.”
So, while mainstream media still claims a mortality rate below 1% is a complete hoax, Birx verified — whether on purpose or by accident — that at least 99% of the population has nothing to fear from this virus.
And remember, the total death toll is enormously falsely inflated with those that died WITH, rather than FROM, SARS-CoV-2. The reason the U.S. Centers for Disease Control hasn’t ended COVID-19’s epidemic status also appears to be because they include deaths from pneumonia and influenza in the statistics. Combined, pneumonia, influenza and COVID-19 deaths were still above the epidemic threshold, based on data through August 22.16
Meanwhile, deaths in which COVID-19 is listed on the death certificate as the sole cause of death are only 6% of the total COVID-19 death toll, according to CDC data released August 26.17 On that day, the total death toll listed was 161,392, 6% of which would be 9,683.
The remaining 94% had an average of 2.6 “additional conditions or causes” contributing to those deaths. That even includes 5,133 deaths from intentional or unintentional injuries (according to the data listed on August 26; exact numbers may have changed since then).

Evidence Shows Masks Do Not Protect Against Viral Infection

I’ve already written several articles detailing studies showing that masks cannot protect against viral infections. The reason is simple. SARS-CoV-2 has a diameter of 0.06 to 0.14 microns.18 Medical N95 masks — which are considered the most effective — can filter particles as small as 0.3 microns.19 Surgical masks, homemade masks, T-shirts and bandanas are even more porous.
Strangely, mask mandates continue to flourish despite health agencies own research showing it’s a futile measure that only provides a false sense of security:
  • The World Health Organization’s June 5, 2020, guidance memo20 on face mask use states “there is no direct evidence (from studies on COVID- 19 and in healthy people in the community) on the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19.”
  • According to a policy review paper21 published in the CDC’s own journal, Emerging Infectious Diseases, in May 2020: “Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.”
  • The National Academies of Sciences in its Rapid Expert Consultation on the Effectiveness of Fabric Masks for the COVID-19 Pandemic report,22 published April 8, 2020, concluded “The evidence from … laboratory filtration studies suggest that … fabric masks may reduce the transmission of larger respiratory droplets,” but that “There is little evidence regarding the transmission of small aerosolized particulates of the size potentially exhaled by asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals with COVID-19.”

Researchers Warn Against Cloth Masks

A study published in 2015 recently received additional commentary from the authors in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. The original study23 was titled “A Cluster Randomized Trial of Cloth Masks Compared with Medical Masks in Healthcare Workers.”
They found that health care workers wearing cloth masks had the highest rates of influenza-like illness and laboratory-confirmed respiratory virus infections, when compared to those wearing medical masks or controls (who used standard practices that included occasional medical mask wearing). Compared to controls and the medical mask group, those wearing cloth masks had a 72% higher rate of lab-confirmed viral infections. According to the authors:
“Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97% and medical masks 44%. This study is the first RCT of cloth masks, and the results caution against the use of cloth masks. This is an important finding to inform occupational health and safety.
Moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in increased risk of infection. Further research is needed to inform the widespread use of cloth masks globally. However, as a precautionary measure, cloth masks should not be recommended for HCWs [health care workers], particularly in high-risk situations …”
In a follow-up commentary dated March 30, 2020, the authors of this study address questions received during the pandemic from health care workers concerned about instructions to use cloth masks if or when medical-grade masks are unavailable. Their comment reads, in part:24
“The study found that cloth mask wearers had higher rates of infection than even the standard practice control group of health workers, and the filtration provided by cloth masks was poor compared to surgical masks …
Health workers are asking us if they should wear no mask at all if cloth masks are the only option. Our research does not condone health workers working unprotected. We recommend that health workers should not work during the COVID-19 pandemic without respiratory protection as a matter of work health and safety …
There have been a number of laboratory studies looking at the effectiveness of different types of cloth materials, single versus multiple layers and about the role that filters can play. However, none have been tested in a clinical trial for efficacy.
If health workers choose to work using cloth masks, we suggest that they have at least two and cycle them, so that each one can be washed and dried after daily use. Sanitizer spray or UV disinfection boxes can be used to clean them during breaks in a single day. These are pragmatic, rather than evidence-based suggestions, given the situation.
Finally for COVID-19, wearing a mask is not enough to protect healthcare workers — use of gloves and goggles are also required as a minimum, as SARS-CoV-2 may infect not only through the respiratory route, but also through contact with contaminated surfaces and self-contamination.”

Pandemic Policies Have Achieved Little

Last but not least, a working paper25 by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), written by Andrew Atkeson, Karen Kopecky and Tao Zha, suggests the draconian lockdown measures implemented in many countries, including the U.S., have achieved little in terms of stemming the death toll.
If we are concerned about the evidence on this global experiment, we must concede that most government authorities have likely acted in error. ~ National Bureau of Economic Research
In an August 26, 2020, article, the American Institute for Economic Research presented the following four “stylized facts” from the paper:26
1.“Once a region reaches 25 total COVID deaths, within a month the growth rate in deaths per day falls to approximately zero. In other words, no matter the country or state and its policies, deaths per day stop increasing within 20-30 days of passing a threshold of 25 deaths.
2.Once that happens, deaths per day either begin to fall or the trend remains flat.
3.The variability in death trends across regions has fallen sharply since the beginning of the epidemic and remains low. All states studied, all countries studied, have become more similar in their trends and have remained so.
4.Observations 1-3 suggest that the effective reproduction number, R, has hovered around one worldwide after the first 30 days of the epidemic.
The paper’s conclusion is that the data trends observed above likely indicate that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) — such as lockdowns, closures, travel restrictions, stay-home orders, event bans, quarantines, curfews, and mask mandates — do not seem to affect virus transmission rates overall.
Why? Because those policies have varied in their timing and implementation across countries and states, but the trends in outcomes do not.”

Estimation across locations

Lockdown Measures Should End Now

Put plainly, the measures we’ve endured these past six months were largely unnecessary. One key reason for why lockdown and social distancing measures had no impact, according to the researchers, is because “human interaction does not conform to simple epidemiological models.”
In a nutshell, human social networks overlap, allowing a virus to rapidly spread for a time. Then, the virus quickly loses momentum, as people have already been exposed via other social networks and are no longer susceptible. The end result is that a form of herd immunity develops, but at a lower rate of infection than typically assumed would be necessary.
What’s more, the authors argue that even if nonpharmaceutical interventions were at one point having some positive effect, that effect no longer applies. Therefore, it would be a mistake to include estimates of NPI effectiveness when trying to forecast the potential outcomes of relaxed measures. As reported by the American Institute for Economic Research:27
“This study provides strong statistical support for what so many have been observing for six months. The epidemic has a natural tendency to spread quickly at first and slow down, seemingly on its own, a point made not only here but as early as April 14 by Isaac Ben-Israel.28
Meanwhile governors imagine that very specific rules for opening bars and restaurants are the key to containment. Governments have conducted an unprecedented social, economic, and political experiment in controlling whole populations’ behavior, with high economic and human cost.
The authors ask the right question: has this experiment in government-managed virus control and suppression made a difference? The startling answer they found, after examining data from around the country and the world, is that the evidence simply is not there. If we are concerned about the evidence on this global experiment, we must concede that most government authorities have likely acted in error.”

Why Are They so Persistent With Mask Recommendations?

Considering the strong scientific evidence against it, why are governments so persistent in their recommendation of mask wearing? Clearly, for many, wearing a bandana or cloth mask provides a form of psychological defense, a way to feel less fearful because it feels like you’re doing something to protect yourself and others. But it’s a false sense of security.
Masks will not prevent you from exhaling or inhaling the aerosolized virus. Cloth masks are clearly also the least preferable option if you want to reduce the spread of infection, as their ability to block larger respiratory droplets is also limited.
In particular, N95 masks with airflow valves on the front should be avoided, as the valve lets out unfiltered air, thus negating the small benefit — the reduction in respiratory droplet emissions — you might get from a mask.29
But with mortality rates as low as they are, why would governments be pushing for a false sense of security? It seems completely unnecessary at this point. Remember back in March 2020 when they said we just need to slow down the rate of infection to avoid overcrowding hospitals?
How did we go from that to now having to wear masks everywhere until every trace of the virus has been eliminated, even though a vast majority remain asymptomatic and don’t even know they have the virus unless they get tested?
Overall, it’s starting to look as though mask mandates are being used as a psychological manipulation tool to encourage compliance with vaccination once a vaccine becomes available. At that point, I predict a tradeoff will be offered: Mask mandates will be dropped provided everyone gets vaccinated.
By then, many may be willing to take just about anything as long as they don’t have to wear a mask anymore.
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2020.09.09 23:14 MotionLawImmigration Immigrant Arrests Now Allowed in Massachusetts Courts Motion Law Immigration

Immigrant Arrests Now Allowed in Massachusetts Courts Motion Law Immigration

The current situation of undocumented immigrants
One of the main focuses of the current administration of the US is to reduce illegal immigration by all possible means. With this, we refer not only to increase surveillance at the borders to reduce massive illegal immigration from Central America, but also to the detention of undocumented foreigners who managed to cross the borders without legal documentation and currently reside in the country.
One of the entities in charge of protecting borders and detaining undocumented foreigners is the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which is one of the branches of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
ICE staff and facilities have grown substantially during President Trump’s term. In fact, the current administration has hired 10,000 ICE employees in the last three years and another 5,000 specialized agents who protect the borders and detain caravans of undocumented immigrants who plan to enter the US without prior authorization or without a legal immigration process.
Also, ICE has carried out multiple operations with the purpose of detaining undocumented immigrants around the country. For instance, in one of our most recent articles, we talk about the arrests of 64 people in Colorado and Wyoming and another 125 in Texas. This happened only during August, 2020.
On top of that, the Trump administration approves that border forces intervene almost anywhere to be able to arrest individuals who broke the country’s immigration laws by crossing the borders unlawfully.
Stay up to date with the latest immigration news. Visit our Blog section.

Now, ICE can arrest immigrants in courthouses

In June, 2019, a federal judge barred border forces from having the right to arrest immigrants in courts, even if these entities suspected they did not have legal documentation.
However, on Tuesday, September 1, 2020, a judge overturned this previous order and ICE has now the power to arrest immigrants in Massachusetts courthouses if there is any indication that they are residing illegally in the US.
This official order unleashed gigantic chaos among immigrant communities, immigrant rights advocates, immigration attorneys and critics, who argue that hundreds of people will avoid going to court for fear of detention or a possible deportation case.
They argue that many legal processes will be incomplete because of this order, as immigrants will never attend a court appointment if their residence in the US could be compromised.

Get your legal documentation as soon as possible

It is quite uncomfortable to constantly worry about possible arrest and even worse, deportation proceedings. That is why illegal immigration never brings positive repercussions for you and your family.
If you need to obtain legal documentation in the US, the best alternative is to seek the help of experienced immigration attorneys and start your process as soon as possible.
In addition to that, current immigration policies have made circumstances more difficult for undocumented immigrants and the benefits available have also been substantially reduced.
Therefore, it is better to avoid precarious situations and have the accompaniment of experts, so that you obtain a positive response to your immigration application.
If you have any questions about an immigration issue or relating to a case you may have currently in progress, then please don’t hesitate to contact us for a FREE Phone Consultation with one of our expert immigration attorneys.
Simply call Motion Law today at: (202) 918-1899.
DISCLAIMER: Motion Law Immigration Social Media & YouTube Channel is made available by the law firm publisher for educational purposes only as well as to provide you with commentary on general information reported from numerous online sources. Whilst we may offer a general understanding or interpretation of the law, we not to provide specific legal advice. By using Motion Law Immigration YouTube channel you understand that there is no attorney client relationship between you and the YouTube channel site publisher. Motion Law Immigration YouTube channel should not be used as a substitute for competent legal advice from a licensed professional attorney in your state.
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2020.08.31 21:36 EmpressTeemo Rioter AMA - 30th August 2020 - Summary

SenseiChroma: Do you sometimes go around Reddit or other media platforms to create new ideas for a card?
DanCast(DC): We go around LoR player communities on Reddit and elsewhere quite often, not for new card ideas specifically, but to understand what players are liking and not liking about the game. Better understanding people's impressions and desires factor into what we make in the future more broadly.
IDKhow2Discord: Thanks so much for doing this AMA, super big fan of the Runeterra universe, been playing League of Legends for 7+ years, LoR since closed beta and super excited to finally try and participate in a Riot AMA! What was the process like play testing for the balance of this segment of the Targon release year, specifically the new region of Targon itself? Was Targon created holistically then segmented, or has development and balancing always been aware and aiming for the current style of a segmented release for the region? As the only other region expansion we’ve seen so far, Bilgewater seems like it could have been wildly different in terms of both thematic resonance and balance if it and the other original 6 regions new champions added in Rising Tides had been separated into segments. And if Targon was originally created holistically do you think the segmented release will make balancing harder going forward, as some card synergies or natural archetype counters have already been developed, but not yet released?
Dovagedys(D): Thanks for the question(s), It's a complicated question with a complicated answer. Ultimately, we know we want to be able to provide new cards to everyone at a satisfying cadence. Originally, we had planned to release new cards every 4 months, but over the past 6 months we quickly realized that is not fast enough. We wanted to move to a two month cadence, but most of the work for Targon and the region that comes after Targon had already been done. We definitely did extensive play testing and balance work on each segment. We believe that all three releases bring new things to the game and are fun to play.
Intrif: Your favourite Colour?
D: Purple. Bearly Leah(BL): Getting in on the easy answer here, blue or purple!
TheSkilledRoy (TSR): I am a huge fan of designing custom cards in just about all the card games I play, and some card games are very transparent with their design philosophies. While I understand LoR is a much newer game than some of those games and thus might have less nailed down in the way of philosophy; we saw relatively recently some of the design process outlined in your "From Champ Select to Your Deck" Article. For those of us who either wish to design custom content, or for those who might one day wish to apply to work for LoR as a designer, would it be possible to get many more articles in the same vein as that one? I feel as though many of the designing/custom group would love to hear what goes into the game and what considerations/values you have for each Region.
Careless Whisper(CW): Great question, and I'm glad to hear the previous articles were helpful. More articles on design and our design process is definitely on the list of to do. Knowing what things y'all are interested in learning more about helps us a ton!
Tail Lover: When can I expect the other league champs with tails to be added to this game? I know you likely can't answer this but I can dream.
DC: What about a champion that sometimes has a tail?
TSR: LoR's coding and way of handling various effects such as card positioning and sequencing is really fascinating. However I'm curious just how much is easily able to be modified/used for card design. For ex; Hypothetically speaking is it possible to reference the opponent's username in a levelup animation? For example with a champion say Pyke and The List?
DC: The tech team tells me it's harder than you'd think. We had a cosmetic concept where we wanted to put your game name on the cosmetic but we decided it wasn't going to be viable.
Maple: Hi Rioters! Thanks for helping us. Following the balance patches this summer, and the release of COTM are y’all considering reexamining the presence of Aggro/Combo in the game? So far it seems that these new tools empower midrange and value strategy to a great degree, but don't seem to have any new threats to keep them in check. Thanks!
D: Great question, Maple The release of Targon is still very young. I think there are still a lot of evolutions and learnings to come as people explore and the meta evolves. We are constantly evaluating the meta and working hard to ensure a healthy and diverse play experience. We want players to be able to play all kinds of decks and be able to have fun and find success. If we notice certain decks over performing we will continue our efforts to tone down cards that are overbearing and pushing other options out of the meta, as well as buffing cards that can encourage more decks that are under represented.
IDKhow2Discord: Any chance of getting long term profile stats like matches played, lifetime number of 7-win Expeditions trials, the ratio of achieving 7-wins per expedition attempts etc., so I can finally prove to my friends I’m the Expedition king of LoR? Any fun stats in general or fun personal stats you keep track of behind the scenes on individual profiles you could one day share? (Numbers of Poro’s summoned?)
DC: Yes, we believe a player profile that contains some type of match history plus a record of feel-good stats/achievements like this is a great feature and something that provides a social foundation for seeing what other players are up to - what they pursue and accomplish. It's something we will be working on.
ASDASDS: What is your least favorite card and why is it so?
BL: I have a hard time playing around Ledros. It's silly but I always forget about him and then die to him! D:
Domi: Hey guys, thanks for this AMA. About Taric's ability: Why did you "nerf" his interaction with Playful Trickster day 1?
D: Thanks for the question! We knew about the Taric + Playful Trickster combo and originally intended to have it go live with Call of the Mountain. However, after some discussion among game design, play test team, and game play leadership we decided that the opponent's experience was potentially too unfun. We want to ensure that both players are having fun in our game. Losing isn't very fun, but unavoidable in a 1v1 game. However, losing slowly and being stuck in a trapped game is very unfun and avoidable. We want games that have a clear winner to end very quickly and the Taric + Playful Trickster combo had high potential to lead to games where 1 player had no mana and no actions to take, but would be forced to click OK repeatedly while Taric slowly attacked them to death. That sounds like a terrible experience and we wanted to protect players from being forced into situations like it.
EmpressTeemo (ET): I've read that LoR was planned to be available on multiple platforms (mostly mobile) very early on in the development. Was there any particular difficulty in porting the code over to mobile clients, or did you simultaneously code all the different builds at the same time?
BL: We built the code from the beginning to prepare for mobile - so that helped us a lot being aware of budgeting needs, especially on low end devices. Certain things, like trying to constrain ourselves to memory budgets per asset (such as texture), and running memory tests per build help us know if we're exceeding our mobile limits. This has been pretty beneficial over making it for PC then going to mobile, as we had less fixing to do for mobile launch.
TaGL: How do you decide which champions to add to each expansion? Is it more based on popularity, or how much they could bring to the game?
CW: Huge caveat that this will usually vary from expansion to expansion. Generally the process is we look at which champions best represent the region and can show off exciting mechanics or themes. Then we look at a swath of things like champ popularity, cool lore moments we want to expand on between champions, overall tone of the set, etc.
ASDASDS: Do you have a clear vision on what you would do once you will run out of regions to add?
D: Hi ASDASDS ! Yes. We have a clear plan for content that comes after our last 2 regions are introduced to the game. Unfortunately, we can't discuss future content right now, but in some cases we work on content up to 2 years before it's released.
TSR: League of Legends is well known for it's incredibly diverse range of Alternate Universes and Skins. Just recently we had a Spirit Blossom event synchronized with the LoL event at the same time. Judging from the new render of SBYasuo, alot of us were expecting some sort of premium version of Yasuo such as a skin for the card. Seeing as that obviously didn't happen, what is the team's stance on skins for cards? Perhaps with new VO/FX/Levelup Animations?
DC: We have loved bringing some of the alternate fantasies to LoR through our current cosmetic products. Card cosmetics will be in LoR's future, but we're taking our time to put our best foot forward on it, including some player studies. We have to think a lot about would players rather SB Yasuo be a skin or SB Yasuo be a new card with it's own flavor and abilities?Are there some fantasies we should do as cosmetics and others we should do new cards - can we do it both ways and have it be clear to players? That's what we think about. Let us know your thoughts on the boards!
CuriousThing: Hi all! Bit of a technical curiosity: in open beta, there was a bug that allowed a player to cast Spinning Axe discarding a card that was "about" to be discarded by another effect. What was the source of this bug? Was the game engine tied to the UI somehow?
BL: That's a fun one! Disclosure: I didn't work on this bug, and I don't work on gameplay itself. But from speculation my guess would be that while the card was marked for delete, there was a time in cleanup while the animation was playing that it was still clickable, and was not marked as discarded until the animation ended. So not as much to do with UI as a timing issue.
Splingo: The video containing the roadmap for future content (e.g. the addition of Labs, Gauntlet, the Event) was super awesome. Is there another one like that planned? When should we expect it?
DC: Yes there's one being planned now. Don't expect it too soon, but we want some way to talk about the end of the year with all of you. I hope the video works out
ET: Are there any super crazy mechanics or cards you wanted to implement into the game but scratched in the end? I'm thinking of stuff like the chicken that deals 1 damage when you hover it in Hearthstone, things that are just simply bizarre :D
D: There are a ton of designs that the team tries that don't make it to be released. Sometimes they aren't fun, sometimes we can't balance them, or sometimes they don't fit well with the rest of the release. In general, we try not to discuss these ideas publicly too often, because we may decide to use them in a future release and we don't want to spoil the surprise.
Ryu: This question is completely unrelated to this game, so I’m not sure if you guys can even answer this. I’ll be finishing my 4th year of college studying cyber security this spring. I’m still trying to figure out what sort of work I’d even want to do, but I’m just curious if you guys know of any opportunities at Riot Games? Or if there’s someone I could contact regarding this? I checked the site and don’t see any opening for security jobs currently, but did see you have a bug bounty program.
BL: We do have teams that work in security. So it's something available, even if the position isn't open now. I would definitely work on putting together something demonstrable of your skill, portfolio/Github/etc, so when the time comes you'd be ready!
Splingo: How does the team view the Spirit Blossom event? Was it a success? What were the major learnings from it, and do more events in the future seem likely?
DC: We do view it as a success - and our post-event player surveys showed you all liked it too! The main thing we want to improve from the learnings is the Quest/Win of the Day system. We want to emphasize the win of the day less, and instead have more progress come from having a more distributed cadence of quests throughout the event (not all up front). As well as have the quests be less specific (I know how you feel about challenge 100 units) On the rewards: we saw players want less shards on the event road, and some new more interesting rewards instead, so we're going to work on that.
Lhunatyk: The art and lore of LoR have been amazing! How do you choose which statline/effect goes with each art/flavor?
CW: Great question! During development design works closely with narrative and art to create the art with the statline and effects of the card. So it's less of "choosing" and more creating them together as one complete coherent piece. This will often mean chatting about the theme of the character, what is important about their stat line or effect, and how to best represent those mechanics in the art.
TSR: I do love a lot of the cosmetics currently available in the game (Guardians, Cardbacks and Boards) Can I hear some more about future upcoming cosmetics that aren't in those categories and more ways to sink my bank account?
DC: But you don't love emotes?? Why can't I Jinx OMG react in this Discord?
ImpulseNE: There seems to be many cards that seem like they are supposed to be attached to currently unreleased champions. Is there a reason for releasing these cards and will you be doing any else like this in the future?
D: Great question! Cards connections in LoR are a complex network of interactions. There are many cards that are designed for specific champions, but can end up working in past, present, and future decks. We try to release cards together that we think will be the most fun and create the most interesting interactions. And we think it's fun to allude to what could be potentially coming in the future. Yes we will continue to do so in the future.
Ace: How happy were you with the meta before the expansion hit, were you satisfied with the variety of decks played?
D: Hi, thanks for the question. I am extremely proud of LoR's meta since the launch of our game. Before we launched we had a goal of having a metagame that had 10 decks. And we knew that was a lofty goal. However, since the launch of LoR we have repeatedly seen metagames that have 20, 25, 30, and up to 35 different decks that are competitively viable. I am completely blown away by the metagame diversity in LoR's meta game and excited to see it continue to evolve over time.
Simple Enigma: Just like almost everyone else I love the emotes! So much personality in them and conveys really fun emotions. Especially with how rapidly new emotes are being added are there plans to allow for more emotes to be 'equipped' for a match? And of course which 8 emotes are you running now?
DC: Wait..are you hacking to run 8 emotes? Yes, I would love for everyone to have more emote access. We want this, but we want to build a lot of things, so it comes down to deciding our priorities on what delivers the most player value. There may be a time where we have to work on a related feature, so an opportunity to adjust this will come up. My ideal would be an intuitive UI that's fast to use on mobile where a player could access all their emotes. My current fav 6: Not Sure If, Wink, Cheers, Sweating, Into My Trap, and (of course) Obliteration
Domi: What was the hardest card from Targon to code? Is it some card we’ve already seen or is it one yet to come?
D: Funny question, Taric has definitely been the most complicated card to code in Call of the Mountain.
Callonetta: When you're not working on LoR things, what games do you like to play? Mostly card games or do you sink your time into games completely different than the ones you work on?
BL: I play a lot of League of Legends / Overwatch as well. I also love party games to play with friends and platformers, metroidvanias and rhythm games galore. Some of my favorite games are the Ori series, Super Mario Sunshine, Dance Dance Revolution and Beat Saber!
Callonetta: From card drawing, animations, and even gameplay itself, LoR seems unique in that “feels bad” moments don’t come up as often as other card games I’ve played. I was wondering what specific challenges you faced creating a game that felt good to play, and what you would like to do in the future to make LoR feel even better?
D: Thanks for the thoughtful question, Callonetta. We have a lot of great plans for LoR in the future. We have worked hard to build a great foundation for the game, but this is only the beginning. Ultimately, the ideas we choose to deliver to make LoR feel better will come from the community. We want to listen and learn from you all to help us choose the improvements that you all want. I think one of the most special parts about the LoR team is how dedicated everyone on the team is to listening to players and learning how to make the game better for everyone.
mcfries mcburger: What's the basis for your card design in terms of power level? Do you ever just think of a card and say "this card is too strong/weak" and how do you tune it to the level at which it feels juuuust right?
CW: Generally when it comes to the power level of a design we ask ourselves 2 questions. Is this card sensible given the rest of the cards? If not, are there numbers (cost, power, health, effect output) where this could be a sensible card? As for how we decide what sensible is, it's a lot of playtesting, feedback, and evaluating other cards that do similar things.
Callonetta: Other things that can make a game feel bad are long animations, slow draw speed, etc. I'm sure there are a ton of other things you all do to make the game feel clean and smooth to play (UI), how you can customize your own boards, guardians, etc that make it feel more like "you", along with game mechanics that feel fair. I'm happy for any answer at all! Mostly I'm impressed at how much attention to detail has been given to making the game feel really good to play as often as possible, and wondering how you work out what's working in those areas, what isn't, and what you'd like to improve.
DC: The best way to encapsulate it is the LoR team is made up of Rioters who really care deeply about the player experience and are detail oriented and very creative at their problem solving. I'm honored to work with everyone on this team.
Diogo gol: The enemy Aurelion Sol turning allied Celestials into 0 cost, was that a bug?
D: Thanks for the question Diogo gol! The interaction of Aurelion Sol level 2 reducing the cost of opponent's cards was a bug. We released a fix for that bug shortly after the release of Call of the Mountain.
nico🥀: Hi id like to say I'm a huge fan of LoR. I’m wondering what guardian you all like the most personally for me it's cosmo :3
D: Personally, my favorite guardian is Von Yipp, but it's really hard to choose because there are so many awesome guardians. And I'm excited for upcoming guardians that will become my new favorites!
ET: Hi Leah :> You mentioned you don't work on the gameplay parts of the game! As someone who has no idea of what software engineers do, would you mind describing which parts of the end product you've been working on?
BL: Absolutely thanks for the Q! I do metagame work on DanCast's team! So Events, onboarding, rewards, quests, end of game are the types of things my team touches. We work to make sure the "out of game" experience feels good to interact with too. There's also plenty of other engineering teams too! Such as those who work to keep our build pipelines running smoothly. And they're all essential to getting LoR out to players
Cowboy Toast: One of the best parts about Legends of Runeterra are the amazing animations we see with many cards, even if they aren't champions. The recent expansion especially is incredible and very beautiful with all the designs and animations. Anyways, what's your favorite pizza topping?
BL:: Pineapple and ham Pepperoni! I'm simple but it's delicious. Also I eat the crust of my pizza first.
CheezeDraco: Would you consider diversifying the rewards in gauntlets? Because the current icon rewards are granted for the first play/win and then the mode is usually ignored by most players until a new mode/format arrives.
DC: Yes, but we're working on rewards that we think will be a better fit and can be more extensible than icons. Be on the watch for one of those future Dev videos to learn more (again, not too soon)
Klonne: Could you guys already be planning/working on champions cards that are not found in League of Legends?
D: We often talk about making new champions that don't exist in League of Legends, but right now we are focused on introducing as many champions from League into LoR as we can. There are over 140 champions in League of Legends and LoR doesn't have 1/3 of them yet.
TaGL: Do you plan to give support to older archetypes like sea monsters and scouts in current(COTM) and future expansions?
CW: We do! Part of future content design is not just expansion of older regions, but also how to add to the archetypes already present.
TerraGen: Hey guys, thanks for doing this AMA! I love all the work you have done with LoR. I love everything about the game! My question is whether or not there is a plan to add in a spectate mode?
D: We are planning to release a spectate mode in the future. I don't think we have given an exact date yet.
ET: When LoR was finally released, was there a sick underground techno party with Poro DJs? How did you celebrate - if at all?
DC: LoR released under shelter in place here in LA (and in our international locations), so we ordered some desserts on DoorDash and played online games together. The poro DJs were all booked for LoR's Korean ad team
EtherealWonder: How did you join Riot, and what made you want to join Riot?
BL:: I was playing League since 2012, and that initially piqued my interest in Riot. I volunteered at a GDC (Game Development Conference) while I was in college and met a bunch of Rioters there. They were all really nice and that really made me want to join :). I graduated in 2017, and started working at another game company in Massachusetts. In 2018 Riot hit me up and after a bunch of interviews I joined!
TSR: Is 10 the final number you’ve settled on for the number of Regions?
D: We have some fun ideas for how we could potentially shift champions to regions players may not initially associate the champion. However, right now we are focused on getting as many champions from League into LoR as possible.
Callonetta: Do you have pets, and if so, what kind, and most importantly can I pet them?
BL: I have 2 dogs, Jax and Leo. Not only can you pet them, but they demand pets. This post not sponsored by dogs
TaGL: Kind of the reverse of a previously asked question - have you designed any cards or will you design any cards soon, knowing they will be champions in the future?
DC: We don't have a handshake with LoL for anything like that at the moment, but we aspire to create interesting characters for the world of Runeterra that other teams can pick up and use if they wish. We just hope players love what is put out, and maybe if there's someone the community loves, they could be seen in another game or video or comic or such
Mimir, the Felony Fellow: Are the cards like the Startled Stomper Zoe’s creation? If not, is it a creation from her friends?
D: I'm not sure if Zoe creates them or transforms them, but she is definitely involved.
ASDASDS: Are there any champions that you agreed to never release?
D: No. We hope to release every champion someday.
eslb: What's your favorite ranked reward icon? This includes color differences from the ranks.
DC: Diamond Season of Plunder Alas, I ended Plat that season (just like every season)
TSR: A large number of champions are based on their "lore" forms rather than translations of their LoL gameplay; what goes into deciding what to focus on for champions? Thresh has an ability much closer to his ingame whereas Karma is entirely about her lore rather than how she acts in gameplay.
CW: There are a number of things we tend to look at when focusing on the champion. What is their role in the set, what mechanics do we want to show off through the champion, are there any narrative/story beats we want to hit with them. Usually we try to find what version of this champion do we want to design, and then go from there.
kino: When you design a champion, do you always have a primary archetype / deck in mind or do you intend multiple different uses for it? How important is champion versatility as opposed to the cohesiveness of its archetype?
D: It varies for each champion. We want all champions to feel special. Some of them are designed with a very specific deck in mind, like Nautilus. Others are designed with multiple decks in mind, like Shen. And yet others are more general, like Twisted Fate. However, we do want every champion to have at least one deck they are best in.
Mimir, the Felony Fellow: In roughly 3 weeks I'm gonna start my enrolment in a game development degree. As someone who lives in Portugal, is there any way to work for Riot (specifically in the LoR team since that's my favorite Riot game) without moving to the US, while being an active member of the team and not just work in localization?
BL:: LoR development largely happens between our LA and Hong Kong offices. There are other offices where other development happens though. The best way is to check the careers page and see what listings are available for the office you're interested in.
ET: Milk first or cereal first?
CW: Cereal first. ARE THERE PEOPLE THAT DO MILK FIRST?
Neo! Unicorn Rabbit Knight!: If you had a truck what would you put in it?
BL:: A smaller truck, of course.
Hanles: Hi guys! First of all thank you so much for creating such an amazing game and for your continuous support and regular updates. I would like to ask , what is your current view on the success of LoR so far? Has the number of players met your initial expectations or do you feel like there is still an unused potential to lure in new players? As a relatively new player myself who loves the game to death, I feel like so far it hasn't got the attention it deserves so I'd love to know what's the perspective of you as Rioters on the matter.
D: We are extremely proud of how many players have been enjoying LoR! We believe this is only the beginning and we hope to see more and more players joining the community over time.
Jason: Will there ever be a way to listen to the music of the boards before we buy them?
DC: Someday, yes I hope so. We have a lot of things we want to build and limited resources so we have to choose our projects with a lot of consideration. Since a lot of fans and creators preview content on video sites, we focus our efforts on more gameplay experiences for players.
A Badgerbear: What are your plans when a year from now comes and there are too many cards to balance? Will we have a similar thing to Hearthstone where sets from a while ago will be unplayable in ranked?
D: We want players to always be able to play with their favorite cards. We hope that our model for live balance will help players enjoy the cards they love. And we want to avoid situations where players aren't able to include the cards they love in their decks.
EtherealWonder: What's the funniest moment of friendly competition/dare/general tomfoolery you've seen your colleagues in Riot do for fun during break-time?
DC: Dovagedys still owes his team a rendition of a Taylor Swift song
Dovagedys: Yikes DanCast
BL: We play a lot of games together on breaks and such. I had a friend try to meme me in a game of LoR by vile-feasting my unit that he was going to kill anyways. Unfortunately that unit was Scarmother Vrynna and the extra damage won me the game he would've won. I still tease him about it.
Splingo: At one point someone from the team said that they would look into more options for making the data about viable decks that you all see open to the public. Any updates on that? It's cool to know that there are regularly 20-30 viable competitive decks, but it's hard to see past the data that fansites offer so we the players only have ever a limited amount of insight into what's actually working for people.
D: We do still plan on sharing more information around the meta, but we don't have an exact date yet.
TSR: What was the biggest emergent gameplay from the community that the team didn't foresee?
DC: There was too strong of an emote to include in the starting 6
Tail Lover: Lore question: In League, the only Yordle that has a tail is Gnar, and that makes sense due to him being ancient. But in LoR, we have Fae Bladetwirler, a Yordle that doesn't just have one tail, but multiple tails. Are tails on yordles a somewhat common thing nowadays or is it some rare special thing. Also are there any other tailed Yordles I should be aware of in the game already?
D: Keep in mind that League only showcases the champions in Runeterra. Gnar is the only yordle champion with a tail, but there are so many yordles that exist in the world of Runeterra that are not champions and many of them have tails.
Mimir, the Felony Fellow: Could we possibly have some place in the deckbuilder where we could see the card art and flavor text for everything else we can't maindeck? I wanna look at many celestial cards for description or lore reasons and I am never able to.
D: As of Call of the Mountain there is a new filter option in the deck builder that will allow you to see the Celestial cards.
mcfries mcburger: Though LoR has a slowly but surely growing competitive scene (e.g. DoR and serverwide tournaments), are there any plans to eventually have our counterpart to League's Worlds with splits and invitationals and everything?
D: We hope to have esports some day, but right now we have been very focused on making the game as fun as possible. We are focused on listening and learning to the community to be sure we are making the right improvements. We do hope to have in client tournaments and then eventually esports some day, but right now we don't have a specific date for them.
Garnetino: Seeing as there are only so many regions from Map of Runeterra not implemented in game (with 2 new regions a year), what would you do when there are no regions to implement?
D: Right now, our plan is to focus on 10 regions in runeterra. As of Call of the Mountain we have 8.
chrm14: I would like to know how you would like to lead new players to the game, and if you are thinking of creating an official deck creation system on the LoR website, and if there will be a community deck system like on mobalytics.
DC: Thank you for the thoughtful question. It's a problem space we think about, and we know deck creation is a challenging aspect for many players. Deck Bundles were one idea to give players something new they could use early. We don't want to repeat the work of our partners at Mobalytics, but we are thinking about ways to make it easier to bring friends into LoR.
Remake: Since the new patch I've had issues with Asol’s level up. So when I have 20+ power and round ends Sol sometimes just will not level up at all, this has happened in a few of my games where i have had a board 20+ power and he would not level up, any plans to look into this bug?
BL:: I can't speak to the specifics of this bug. But as a neat tidbit about bugs in general: For all bugs they will go through some triage process, including being verified by QA for a consistent repro, heading to production where they decide how impactful the bug is, and finally through engineering where we will of course attempt to fix it. There's a bunch of steps that go in the finding and fixing bugs that makes it a fun process.
Super Lasanh: Do you have plans to bring PVE game modes? Perhaps an event where there is a boss with a gigantic life, of which the community will have to strive to defeat and win prizes.
D: Personally, I would love it if we were able to eventually add some PVE and/or story game modes to LoR. It's something we talk about and hope that we can do at some point, but right now we don't have any specific release date for a PVE mode.
SenseiChroma: If you had a poro in real life, what would you name it?
D: Snack
SenseiChroma: How did you deal with the constructive criticism that most card game fans gave to you from the start of when the game was released? CCG fans of Hearthstone or MTG had made their opinions on your game, so I wonder what your opinions are on such criticism that you've been receiving the past few months.
CW: Constructive criticism is crucial for us to grow and improve the game. We always knew that initial impressions especially from CCG fans were going to be heavily rooted in other games, and that's a totally reasonable starting point. The hope is that as they play and learn more about LoR they're able to see the strengths of what makes the game great.
DC: To add on to the question; One of the areas where LoR's first impression isn't as great is in our rewards (say for Ranked or Gauntlets). In other CCGs, competitive game modes often reward cards. In games where high rarity cards are very hard to get, those rewards look very valuable. So if you just compared rewards like icons or XP to card packs or rare cards, it looks like our rewards aren't motivating. Our philosophy on more accessible cards makes it more challenging to come up with rewards here, and it may take a new player time to see how quickly their collection can grow through the roads and vault to appreciate that difference. We're working on future things we can use as rewards to help with this.
EtherealWonder: Dovagedys I'm sorry, but I have to know the story behind you owing your team a TaySwift song.
D: Honestly, it's a troll perpetrated by some devious people on my team. Once upon a time I was a singer. I'm also a gigantic Taylor Swift fan and I frequently utilize her songs, lyrics, images, and quotes in team communications. I don't really know/remember how the joke of me "owing the team" began.
TSR: A sandbox mode would be incredibly useful to help teach new players and give new scenarios for "puzzle" challenges and the like. Is there any technical limitation that makes this mode impossible to make? Or is this entirely impossible?
BL:: There are some technical implications to this unfortunately. As far as "puzzles" such as tutorials go, I know they can take some scripting for special circumstances, which makes it a large time investment. As far as a sandbox mode goes, there's a few things: exposing the right cheats on non-internal builds, the impact of having potentially infinitely long game times, or what to do about crashes as people try to do things that wouldn't happen in a normal game. We'd also have to contemplate how we load cards into the game at random (Do we need to check against your inventory, are we unloading cards no longer in use appropriately, is this impacting your game performance, etc). So not something I would say is impossible, but would take a decent time investment.
mcfries mcburger: Which poro is your favorite?
D: Nimble Poro. She's totally awesome. Also during development Steve Rubin (Live Balance Design Lead) wrote a short song about Nimble Poro and I will never forget it.
Intrif: Love you Riot(?) <--- Definitely a question
BL:: Oh my, uhm, thank you
IDKhow2Discord: Do you think Quinn is achieving her thematic fantasy right now? Regardless of power level, do you think she feels 'cool' as a champion?
D: I think so. I love Quinn and I'm really happy with her design in LoR. Her level up is one of my favorites.
r xy: how much do you take expeditions into account when designing a card (especially assigning rarity)
CW: They are a soft consideration when it comes to initial design of a card. We usually do a larger pass with Expeditions once we know the general shape of the archetype. Rarity is part of that pass, given rarity helps influence appearance rate.
Callonetta: What's your favorite thing about the player base of LoR? Least favorite? Spill the tea!
DC: Favorite: The dedication to creating a lively, welcoming, and meaningful community space for fans of the game and helping it grow.
Second favorite: The love for Spirit Blossom Corina and recognizing her from the promo art
Least Favorite: I don't know about some of your emote meta hot takes...
CW:
Fave: Y'alls meme game is off the charts and I love it
Least: Not enough love and support for the best bot, Slotbot
D: My favorite thing is the overwhelming positivity of the LoR community. I have been playing games on the internet for a very long time and I have never seen so much positivity in a game community before. It's astounding to me. I am very humbled by and proud of the community we are all building. My least favorite aspect is the hyperbolic language the community sometimes uses when talking about the metagame, segregating decks that have 52% win rate as playable or S tier and decks that have 50% win rate as tier 2, 3, or even unplayable. I think that language and thought pattern leads to the erroneous idea that there are a small number of decks in the LoR metagame, when the reality is that there are 20-35 decks that all have win rates between 47% and 53%.
SenseiChroma: Knowing that in today's time there is a pandemic going on, how did you deal working from home into developing the game as time passes by?
BL:: The pandemic is definitely a hard thing to deal with. I feel pretty lucky myself that Riot does it's best to take care of us during this time. Since I'm at a computer all day for my job, I try to take some time after work (or sometimes during, shh) to take a walk or rest if I need to. Also making sure to stay hydrated, get plenty of rest, do some cool new hobbies, and talk with people when I'm feeling down! Gotta keep up that strong mental energy.
r xy: can we please get an article on how the spell mana system came to be? (and more design articles in general pls) (and less broad pls, the champions article only had like 2 sentences per champion)
CW: That is a great question! No immediate promises, but one thing I personally want to do more is writing design articles for y'all. Knowing what parts of design you want to hear about helps a ton.
SenseiChroma: Was there ever a specific champion that you loved to main and play as in League of Legends that you wished was in LoR?
CW: I keep trying to sneak in Twitch, but the other designers keep too many traps down
Thanks for everyone who partook, and especially a huge thank you to all the Rioters who partook in this AMA! Hope to see you all again soon c:
submitted by EmpressTeemo to LegendsOfRuneterra [link] [comments]


2020.08.31 01:23 _mr0 General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 30th, 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Several polls are in the field, so we won't have a full picture of the field until next week when more are expected to be released. Until then, here are the polls since August 16th.
Poll Date Type Biden Trump
USC Dornsife 8-30 National 54 39
YouGov 8-29 National 47 41
Morning Consult 8-29 National 50 44
Morning Consult 8-29 National 52 42
USC Dornsife 8-29 National 52 40
Emerson College 8-28 Massachusetts 69 30
Trafalgar Group 8-28 Michigan 45 46
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-28 National 48 38
Franklin & Marshall College 8-27 Pennsylvania 49 42
Harris Insights & Analytics 8-26 National 47 38
Ipsos 8-26 National 44 37
Benenson Strategy Group 8-26 National 50 39
Rasmussen Reports 8-26 National 46 45
YouGov 8-26 National 50 41
Roanoke College 8-26 Virginia 53 39
Ipsos 8-26 National 47 40
Change Research 8-26 Wisconsin 49 44
Change Research 8-26 Arizona 49 47
Change Research 8-26 Michigan 50 44
Change Research 8-26 Florida 49 46
Change Research 8-26 National 51 43
Change Research 8-26 North Carolina 48 47
Change Research 8-26 Pennsylvania 49 46
Trafalgar Group 8-25 Wisconsin 45 46
Public Policy Polling 8-25 Delaware 58 37
Public Policy Polling 8-25 New York 63 32
Public Policy Polling 8-25 Florida 48 44
Morning Consult 8-24 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-24 National 52 43
Morning Consult 8-24 National 52 42
Morning Consult 8-24 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-24 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-24 National 52 42
Léger 8-24 National 49 40
Morning Consult 8-24 National 52 42
Morning Consult 8-24 North Carolina 49 46
Public Policy Polling 8-24 Texas 48 47
Trafalgar Group 8-24 Louisiana 37 54
YouGov 8-24 National 50 39
TargetSmart 8-24 Ohio 47 46
YouGov 8-23 National 52 42
Morning Consult 8-22 National 52 43
Morning Consult 8-22 National 51 43
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-22 National 49 39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 Pennsylvania 48 41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 Florida 49 41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 North Carolina 44 46
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 Michigan 50 38
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 Wisconsin 49 39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 Arizona 47 38
Harris Insights & Analytics 8-21 National 46 38
Civiqs 8-21 Wisconsin 51 45
Civiqs 8-21 Pennsylvania 51 44
Civiqs 8-21 Michigan 49 46
Civiqs 8-21 Ohio 47 47
DKC Analytics 8-21 New Jersey 52 33
Saint Anselm College 8-20 New Hampshire 51 43
Muhlenberg College 8-20 Pennsylvania 49 45
Global Strategy Group 8-20 Texas 47 45
Echelon Insights 8-20 National 51 38
Echelon Insights 8-20 National 53 39
Data for Progress 8-20 National 50 41
Morning Consult 8-20 National 47 36
Morning Consult 8-20 National 49 39
Trafalgar Group 8-19 Minnesota 46 46
Ipsos 8-19 National 48 40
Ipsos 8-19 National 45 36
ALG Research 8-19 Louisiana 43 50
Rasmussen Reports 8-19 National 48 44
YouGov 8-19 National 50 40
Harris Insights & Analytics 8-18 National 45 39
OnMessage Inc. 8-18 Wisconsin 47 47
OnMessage Inc. 8-18 Florida 49 49
OnMessage Inc. 8-18 Pennsylvania 50 46
OnMessage Inc. 8-18 Arizona 48 51
GQR Research (GQRR) 8-18 Michigan 52 43
Léger 8-17 National 51 35
Morning Consult 8-17 National 50 43
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 42
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 42
Morning Consult 8-17 Wisconsin 49 43
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-17 National 48 40
Landmark Communications 8-17 Georgia 44 47
YouGov 8-17 National 49 38
YouGov 8-17 National 50 41
YouGov 8-17 Texas 40 47
ABC News 8-17 National 54 44
ABC News 8-17 National 53 41
ABC News 8-17 National 53 41
SSRS 8-16 National 50 46
YouGov 8-16 National 52 42
East Carolina University 8-16 North Carolina 46 46
NBC News 8-16 National 50 41

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
submitted by _mr0 to politics [link] [comments]


2020.08.31 01:22 Imhotep0 Call of the Mountain Discord event AMA: Riot responses

Hello friends! I read through all the responses from the Riot AMA on discord a few hours ago, collated and formatted them here for you all who didn't see them on discord. I cut out some of the preamble "Hey i love the game", "Thanks for the question" stuff but other than that I'm pretty sure everything is here, but I might have missed one or two so if I have, I apologise :(
4 wonderful Rioters took part: @DanCast, @Dovagedys, @Bearly Leah and @Careless Whisper. Thank you all for your time answering the questions!

Do you sometimes go around reddit or other media platforms to create new ideas for a card?

DanCast: We go around LoR player communities on reddit and elsewhere quite often, not for new card ideas specifically, but to understand what players are liking and not liking about the game. Better understanding people's impressions and desires factor into what we make in the future more broadly.

What was the process like play testing for the balance of this segment of the Targon release year, specifically the new region of Targon itself? Was Targon created holistically then segmented, or has development and balancing always been aware and aiming for the current style of a segmented release for the region? As the only other region expansion we’ve seen so far, Bilgewater seems like it could have been wildly different in terms of both thematic resonance and balance if it and the other original 6 regions new champions added in Rising Tides had been separated into segments. And if Targon was originally created holistically do you think the segmented release will make balancing harder going forward, as some card synergies or natural archetype counters have already been developed, but not yet released?

Dovagedys: It's a complicated question with a complicated answer. Ultimately, we know we want to be able to provide new cards to everyone at a satisfying cadence. Originally, we had planned to release new cards every 4 months, but over this past 6 months we quickly realized that is not fast enough. We wanted to move to a two month cadence, but most of the work for Targon and the region that comes after Targon had already been done. We definitely did extensive play testing and balance work on each segment. We believe that all three releases bring new things to the game and are fun to play.

Your favourite Colour?

Dovagedys: Purple
Leah: Purple or blue

I am a huge fan of designing custom cards in just about all the card games I play, and some card games are very transparent with their design philosophies. While I understand LoR is a much newer game than some of those games and thus might have less nailed down in the way of philosophy; we saw relatively recently some of the design process outlined in your "From Champ Select to Your Deck" Article. For those of us who either wish to design custom content, or for those who might one day wish to apply to work for LoR as a designer, would it be possible to get many more articles in the same vein as that one? I feel as though many of the designing/custom group would love to hear what goes into the game and what considerations/values you have for each Region.

Whisper: Great question, and I'm glad to hear the previous articles were helpful. More articles on design and our design process is definitely on the list of to do. Knowing what things y'all are interested in learning more about helps us a ton!

when can I expect the other league champs with tails to be added to this game? I know you likely can't answer this but I can dream. [This was asked by someone with the discord name @TailLover :D]

DanCast: What about a champion that sometimes has a tail?

LoR's coding and way of handling various effects such as card positioning and sequencing is really fascinating. However I'm curious just how much is easily able to be modified/used for card design. For ex; Hypothetically speaking is it possible to reference the opponent's username in a levelup animation? For example with a champion say Pyke and The List?

DanCast: The tech team tells me it's harder than you'd think. We had a cosmetic concept where we wanted to put your game name on the cosmetic but we decided it wasn't going to be viable.

Hello Rioters! Thanks for helping us. Following the balance patches this summer, and the release of COTM are yall considering rexamining the presence of Aggro/Combo in the game? So far it seems that these new tools empower midrange and value stradegy in a great degree, but dont seem to have any new threats to keep them in check. Thanks!

Dovagedys: The release of Targon is still very young. I think there are still a lot of evolutions and learnings to come as people explore and the meta evolves. We are constantly evaluating the meta and working hard to ensure a healthy and diverse play experience. We want players to be able to play all kinds of decks and be able to have fun and find success. If we notice certain decks over performing we will continue our efforts to tone down cards that are overbearing and pushing other options out of the meta, as well as, buffing cards that can encourage more decks that are under represented.

Any chance of getting long term profile stats like matches played, lifetime number of 7-win Expeditions trials, the ratio of achieving 7-wins per expedition attempts etc., so I can finally prove to my friends I’m the Expedition king of LOR? Any fun stats in general or fun personal stats you keep track of behind the scenes on individual profiles you could one day share? (Numbers of Poro’s summoned?)

DanCast: Yes, we believe a player profile that contains some type of match history plus a record of feel-good stats/achievements like this is a great feature and something that provides a social foundation for seeing what other players are up to - what they pursue and accomplish. It's something we will be working on.

What is your least favorite card and why is it so?

Leah: I have a hard time playing around Ledros. It's silly but I always forget about him and then die to him! D:

About Taric's ability: Why did you "nerf" his interaction with Playful Triclster day 1? The Rube Goldberg Judgement + Challenger + Rally + Big dude is intended or will it somehow be patched out? Is his interaction w Assembly Bot intended? (He gets +1 towards the lv up if you Assembly bot on field with non-targetted spells)

Dovagedys: We knew about the Taric + Playful Trickster combo and originally intended to have it go live with Call of the Mountain. However, after some discussion among game design, play test team, and game play leadership we decided that the opponent's experience was potentially too unfun. We want to ensure that both players are having fun in our game. Losing isn't very fun, but unavoidable in a 1v1 game. However, losing slowly and being stuck in a trapped game is very unfun and avoidable. We want games that have a clear winner to end very quickly and the Taric + Playful Trickster combo had high potential to lead to games where 1 player had no mana and no actions to take, but would be forced to click OK repeatedly while Taric slowly attacked them to death. That sounds like a terrible experience and we wanted to protect players from being forced into situations like it.

I've read that LoR was planned to be available on multiple platforms (mostly mobile) very early on in the development. Was there any particular difficulty in porting the code over to mobile clients, or did you simultaniously code all the different builds at the same time? Furthermore, was there a Mac client planned that was scrapped due to the "App store streaming" MacOS has planned, or was that never a consideration?

Leah: We built the code from the beginning to prepare for mobile - so that helped us a lot being aware of budgeting needs, especially on low end devices. Certain things, like trying to constrain ourselves to memory budgets per asset (such as texture), and running memory tests per build help us know if we're exceeding our mobile limits.
This is has been pretty beneficial over making it for PC then going to mobile, as we had less fixing to do for mobile launch.

How do you decide which champions to add to each expansion? Is it more based on popularity, or how much they could bring to the game?

Whisper: Huge caveat that this will usually vary from expansion to expansion. Generally the process is we look at which champions best represent the region and can show off exciting mechanics or themes. Then we look at a swath of things like champ popularity, cool lore moments we want to expand on between champions, overall tone of the set, etc.

Seeing as there are only so many regions from Map of Runeterra not implemented in game (with 2 new regions a year), what would you do when there are no regions to implement?

Dovagedys: Right now, our plan is to focus on 10 regions in runeterra. As of Call of the Mountain we have 8.

Do you have a clear vision on what you would do once you will run out of regions to add?

Dovagedys: Yes. We have a clear plan for content that comes after our last 2 regions are introduced to the game. Unfortunately, we can't discuss future content right now, but in some cases we work on content up to 2 years before it's released.

Some other card games have taken their main characters and placed them in different colors or classes? Is this something we could see once we have all the champions in game/we need champions in less populated regions? For example Yasuo and Ahri are currently heading to Bilgewater, would we hypothetically see a Yasuo in Ionia and A Yasuo in Bilge at the same time?

Dovagedys: We have some fun ideas for how we could potentially shift champions to regions players may not initially associate the champion. However, right now we are focused on getting as many champions from League into LOR as possible.

League of Legends is well known for it's incredibly diverse range of Alternate Universes and Skins. Just recently we had a Spirit Blossom event syncronized with the LoL event at the saem time. Judging from the new render of SBYasuo, alot of us were expecting some sort of premium version of Yasuo such as a skin for the card. Seeing as that obviously didn't happen, what is the team's stance on skins for cards? Perhaps with new VO/FX/Levelup Animations?

DanCast: We have loved bringing some of the alternate fantasies to LoR through our current cosmetic products. Card cosmetics will be in LoR's future, but we're taking our time to put our best foot forward on it, including some player studies.
We have to think a lot about would players rather SB Yasuo be a skin or SB Yasuo be a new card with it's own flavor and abilities?Are there some fantasies we should do as cosmetics and others we should do new cards - can we do it both ways and have it be clear to players? That's what we think about.
Let us know your thoughts on the boards!

Hi all! Bit of a technical curiosity: in open beta, there was a bug that allowed a player to cast Spinning Axe discarding a card that was "about" to be discarded by another effect such as shown here. What was the source of this bug? Was the game engine tied to UI somehow?

Leah: That's a fun one! Disclosure I didn't work on this bug, and I don't work on gameplay itself. But from speculation my guess would be that while the card was marked for delete, there was a time in cleanup while the animation was playing that it was still clickable, and was not marked as discarded until the animation ended. So not as much to do with UI as a timing issue.

The video containing the roadmap for future content (e.g. the addition of Labs, Gauntlet, the Event) was super awesome. Is there another one like that planned? When should we expect it?

DanCast: Yes there's one being planned now. Don't expect it too soon, but we want some way to talk about the end of the year with all of you. I hope the video works out

Are there any super crazy mechanics or cards you wanted to implement into the game but scratched in the end? I'm thinking of stuff like the chicken that deals 1 damage when you hover it in Hearthstone, things that are just simply bizarre :D

Dovagedys: There are a ton of designs that the team tries that don't make it to be released. Sometimes they aren't fun, sometimes we can't balance them, or sometimes they don't fit well with the rest of the release. In general, we try not to discuss these ideas publicly too often, because we may decide to use them in a future release and we don't want to spoil the surprise.

This question is completely unrelated to this game, so I’m not sure if you guys can even answer this. I’ll be finishing my 4th year of college studying cyber security this spring. I’m still trying to figure out what sort of work I’d even want to do, but I’m just curious if you guys know of any opportunities at Riot Games? Or if there’s someone I could contact regarding this? I checked the site and don’t see any opening for security jobs currently, but did see you have a bug bounty program.

Leah: We do have teams that work in security. So it's something available, even if the position isn't open now. I would definitely work on putting together something demonstrable of your skill, portfolio/Github/etc, so when the time comes you'd be ready!

How does the team view the Spirit Blossom event? Was it a success? What were the major learnings from it, and do more events in the future seem likely?

DanCast: We do view it as a success - and our post-event player surveys showed you all liked it too! The main we want to improve from the learnings is the Quest/Win of the Day system. We want to emphasize the win of the day less, and instead have more progress come from have a more distributed cadence of quests throughout the event (not all up front). As well has have the quests be less specific (I know how you feel about challenge 100 units) On the rewards: we saw players want less shards on the event road, and some new more interesting rewards instead, so we're going to work on that.

The art and lore of LoR have been amazing! How do you choose which statline/effect goes with each art/flavor?

Whisper: Great question! During development design works closely with narrative and art to create the art with the statline and effects of the card. So it's less of "choosing" and more creating them together as one complete coherent piece. This will often mean chatting about the theme of the character, what is important about their stat line or effect, and how to best represent those mechanics in the art.

I do love alot of the cosmetics currently available in the game (Guardians, Cardbacks and Boards) Can I hear some more about future upcoming cosmetics that aren't in those categories and more ways to sink my bank account?

DanCast: But you don't love emotes?? Why can't I Jinx OMG reaction in this slack?

There seems to be many cards that seem like they are supposed to be attachted to currently unreleased champions. Is there a reason for releaseing these cards and will you be doing any else like this in the future?

Dovagedys: Cards connections in LOR are a complex network of interactions. There are many cards that are designed for specific champions, but can end up working in past, present, and future decks. We try to release cards together that we think will be the most fun and create the most interesting interactions. And we think it's fun to allude to what could be potentially coming in the future. Yes we will continue to do so in the future.

How Happy were you with the meta before the expansion hit, were you satisfied with the variety of decks played?

Dovagedys: I am extremely proud of LOR's meta since the launch of our game. Before we launched we had a goal of having a metagame that had 10 decks. And we knew that was a lofty goal. However, since the launch of LOR we have repeatedly seen metagames that have 20, 25, 30, and up to 35 different decks that are competitively viable. I am completely blown away by the metagame diversity in LOR's meta game and excited to see it continue to evolve over time.

Just like almost everyone else I love the emotes! So much personality in them and conveys really fun emotions. Especially with how rapidly new emotes are being added are there plans to allow for more emotes to be 'equipped' for a match? And of course which 8 emotes are you running now?

DanCast: Wait...are you hacking to run 8 emotes?
Yes, I would love for everyone to have more emote access. We want this, but we want to build a lot of things, so it comes down to deciding our priorities on what delivers the most player value. There may be a time where we have to work on a related feature, so an opportunity to adjust this will come up. My ideal would be an intuitive UI that's fast to use on mobile where a player could access all their emotes.
My current fav 6: Not Sure If, Wink, Cheers, Sweating, Into My Trap, and (of course) Obliteration

What was the hardest card from targon to code? Is it some card we've already seen or is it one yet to come?

Dovagedys: Taric has definitely been the most complicated card to code in Call of the Mountain.

When you're not working on LoR things, what games do you like to play? Mostly card games or do you sink your time into games completely different than the ones you work on?

Leah: I play a lot of League of Legends / Overwatch as well. I also love party games to play with friends and platformers, metroidvanias and rhythm games galore. Some of my favorite games are the Ori series, Super Mario Sunshine, Dance Dance Revolution and Beat Saber!

Some players can feel really bad when opponents are able to draw from the top of their deck (although this isn't in my opinion, an issue, but it can be considered something that inherently feels worse than your opponent drawing from the bottom of your deck). Other things that can make a game feel bad are long animations, slow draw speed, etc. I'm sure there are a ton of other things you all do to make the game feel clean and smooth to play (UI), how you can customize your own boards, guardians, etc that make it feel more like "you", along with game mechanics that feel fair. I'm happy for any answer at all! Mostly I'm impressed at how much attention to detail has been given to making the game feel really good to play as often as possible, and wondering how you work out what's working in those areas, what isn't, and what you'd like to improve.

Dovagedys: We have a lot of great plans for LOR in the future. We have worked hard to build a great foundation for the game, but this is only the beginning. Ultimately, the ideas we choose to deliver to make LOR feel better will come from the community. We want to listen and learn from you all to help us choose the improvements that you all want. I think one of the most special parts about the LOR team is how dedicated everyone on the team is to listening to players and learning how to make the game better for everyone.
DanCast: The best way to encapsulate it is the LoR team is made up of Rioters who really care deeply about the player experience and are detailed oriented and very creative at their problem solving. I'm honored to work everyone on this team.

What's the basis for your card design in terms of power level? Do you ever just think of a card and say "this card is too strong/weak" and how do you tune it to the level at which it feels juuuust right?

Whisper: Generally when it comes to power level of a have a design we ask ourselves 2 questions. Is this card sensible given the rest of the cards? If not, are there numbers (cost, power, health, effect output) where this could be a sensible card.
As for how we decide what sensible is, it's a lot of playtesting, feedback, and evaluating other cards that do similar things.

the enemy Aurelion Sol transform the allie celestials cards into 0 mana cost,is it a bug?

Dovagedys: The interaction of Aurelion Sol level 2 reducing cost of opponent's cards was a bug. We released a fixed for that bug shortly after the release of Call of the Mountain.

Hi id like to say im a huge fan of LoR im wondering what guardian you all like the most personally for me its cosmo :3

Dovagedys: Personally, my favorite guardian is Von Yipp, but it's really hard to choose because there are so many awesome guardians. And I'm excited for upcoming guardians that will become my new favorites

How much of my soul do I have to give you guys to get a spoiler to show during next spoiler season?

DanCast: How could your soul be used to provide players value? I mean if you're going to try to bribe a Rioter, do it with something that we can give back to the players.
(Thanks for being cool with this trolling)

Hi Leah :> You mentioned you don't work on the gameplay parts of the game! As someone who has no idea of what software engineers do, would you mind describing which parts of the endproduct you've been working on?

Leah: I do metagame work, on DanCast's team! So Events, onboarding, rewards, quests, end of game are the types of things my team touches. We work to make sure the "out of game" experience feels good to interact with too. There's also plenty of other engineering teams too! Such as those who work to keep our build pipelines running smoothly. And they're all essential to getting LoR out to players

One of the best parts about Legends of Runeterra are the amazing animations we see with many cards, even if they aren't champions. The recent expansion especially is incredible and very beautiful with all the designs and animations. Anyways, what's your favorite pizza topping?

Leah:Pineapple and ham Pepperoni! I'm simple but it's delicious. Also I eat the crust of my pizza first.

Would you consider diversifying the rewards in gauntlets? Because the current icon rewards are granted for the first play/win and then the mode is usually ignored by most players until a new mode/format arrives.

DanCast: Yes, but we're working on rewards that we think will be a better fit and can be more extensible than icons. Be on the watch for one of those future Dev videos to learn more (again, not too soon)

Could you guys already be planning/working on champions cards that are not found in League of Legends?

Dovagedys: we often talk about making new champions that don't exist in League of Legends, but right now we are focused on introducing as many champions from League into LOR as we can. There are over 140 champions in League of Legends and LOR doesn't have 1/3 of them yet.

Do you plan to give support to older archetypes like sea monsters and scouts in current(cotm) and future expansions?

Whisper: We do! Part of future content design is not just expansion of older regions, but also how to add to the archetypes already present.

My question is whether or not there is a plan to add in a spectate mode?

Dovagedys: We are planning to release a spectate mode in the future. I don't think we have given an exact date yet.

When LoR was finally released, was there a sick underground techno party with Poro DJs? How did you celebrate - if at all?

DanCast: LoR released under shelter in place here in LA (and in our international locations), so we ordered some desserts on DoorDash and played online games together. The poro DJs were all booked for LoR's Korean ad team

How did you join Riot, and what made you want to join Riot?

Leah: I was playing League since 2012, and that initially piqued my interest in Riot. I volunteered at a GDC (Game Development Conference) while I was in college and met a bunch of Rioters there. They were all really nice and that really made me want to join :). I graduated in 2017, and started working at another game company in Massachusetts. In 2018 Riot hit me up and after a bunch of interviews I joined!

Do you have pets, and if so, what kind, and most importantly can I pet them?

Leah: I have 2 dogs, Jax and Leo. Not only can you pet them, but they demand pets. This post not sponsored by dogs

Kind of the reverse of a previously asked question - have you designed any cards or will you design any cards soon, knowing they will be champions in the future?

DanCast: We don't have a handshake with LoL for anything like that at the moment, but we aspire to create interesting characters for the world of Runeterra that other teams can pick up and use if they wish. We just hope players love what is put out, and maybe if there's someone the community loves, they could be seen in another game or video or comic or such

I have a question: Are the cards like the Startled Stomper Zoe's creation? (if not hers, is it a creation from her friends?)

Dovagedys: I'm not sure if Zoe creates them or transforms them, but she is definitely involved.

Are there any champions that you agreed to never release?

Dovagedys: No. We hope to release every champion some day.

Whats your favorite ranked reward icon? this includes color difference from the ranks.

DanCast: Diamond Season of Plunder
Alas, I ended Plat that season (just like every season)

A large number of champions are based on their "lore" forms rather than translations of their LoL gameplay; what goes into deciding what to focus on for champions? Thresh has an ability much closer to his ingame whereas Karma is entirely about her lore rather than how she acts in gameplay.

Whisper: There are a number of things we tend to look at when focusing on the champion. What is their role in the set, what mechanics do we want to show off through the champion, are there any narrative/story beats we want to hit with them. Usually we try to find what is the version of this champion do we want to design, and then go from there.

when you design a champion, do you always have a primary archetype / deck in mind or do you intend multiple different uses for it? how important is champion versatility as opposed to the cohesiveness of its archetype?

Dovagedys: It varies for each champion. We want all champions to feel special. Some of them are designed with a very specific deck in mind, like Nautilus. Others are designed with multiple decks in mind, like Shen. And yet others are more general, like Twisted Fate. However, we do want every champion to have at least one deck they are best in.

In roughly 3 weeks I'm gonna start my enrolment in a game development degree. As someone who lives in Portugal, is there any way to work for Riot (specifically in the LoR team since that's my favorite Riot game) without moving to the US, while being an active member of the team and not just work in localization?

Leah: LoR development largely happens between our LA and Hong Kong offices. There are other offices where other development happens though. The best way is to check the careers page and see what listings are available for the office you're interested in.

Milk first or cereal first?

Whisper: Cereal first. ARE THERE PEOPLE THAT DO MILK FIRST?

If you had a truck what would you put in it ?

Leah: A smaller truck, of course.

I would like to ask , what is your current view on the success of LoR so far? Has the number of players met your initial expectations or do you feel like there is still an unused potential to lure in new players? As a relatively new player myself who loves the game to death, I feel like so far it hasn't got the attention it deserves so I'd love to know what's the perspective of you as Rioters on the matter.

Dovagedys: We are extremely proud of how many players have been enjoying LOR! We believe this is only the beginning and we hope to see more and more players joining the community over time.

Will there ever be a way to listen to the music of the boards before we buy them?

DanCast: Someday, yes I hope so. We have a lot of things we want to build and limited resources so we have to choose our projects with a lot of consideration. Since a lot of fans and creators preview content on video sites, we focus our efforts on more gameplay experiences for players.

What are your plans when a year from now comes and there are too many cards to balance? Will we have a similar thing to Hearthstone where sets from awhile ago will be unplayable in ranked?

Dovagedys: We want players to always be able to play with their favorite cards. We hope that our model for live balance will help players enjoy the cards they love. And we want to avoid situations where players aren't able to include the cards they love in their decks.

What's the funniest moment of friendly competition/bet/dare/general tomfoolery you've seen your colleagues in Riot do for fun during break-time?

DanCast: @Dovagedys still owes his team a rendition of a Taylor Swift song
Dovagedys: yikes @DanCast
Leah: We play a lot of games together on breaks and such. I had a friend try to meme me in a game of LoR by vile-feasting my unit that he was going to kill anyways. Unfortunately that unit was Scarmother Vrynna and the extra damage won me the game he would've won. I still tease him about it.

@Dovagedys I'm sorry, but I have to know the story behind you owing your team a TaySwift song.

Dovagedys: Honestly, it's a troll perpetrated by some devious people on my team. Once upon a time I was a singer. I'm also a gigantic Taylor Swift fan and I frequently utilize her songs, lyrics, images, and quotes in team communications. I don't really know/remember how the joke of me "owing the team" began.

At one point someone from the team said that they would look into more options for making the data about viable decks that you all see open to the public. Any updates on that? It's cool to know that there are regularly 20-30 viable competitive decks, but it's hard to see past the data that fansites offer so we the players only have ever a limited amount of insight into what's actually working for people.

Dovagedys: We do still plan on sharing more information around the meta, but we don't have an exact date yet.

What was the biggest emergent gameplay from the community that the team didnt foresee?

DanCast: Hello There was too strong of an emote to include in the starting 6

Lore question: In League, the only Yordle that has a tail is Gnar, and that makes sense due to him being ancient. But in LoR, we have Fae Bladetwirler, a Yordle that doesn't just have one tail, but multiple tails. Are tails on yordles a somewhat common thing nowadays or is it some rare special thing. Also are there any other tailed Yordles I should be aware of in the game already?

Dovagedys: Keep in mind that League only showcases the champions in Runeterra. Gnar is the only yordle champion with a tail, but there are so many yordles that exist in the world of Runeterra that are not champions and many of them have tails.

Finally, could we possibly have some place in the deckbuilder where we could see the card art and flavor text for everything else we can't maindeck? I wanna look at many celestial cards for description or lore reasons and I am never able to.

Dovagedys: As of Call of the Mountain there is a new filter option in the deck builder that will allow you to see the Celestial cards.

Though LoR has a slowly but surely growing competitive scene (e.g. DoR and serverwide tournaments), are there any plans to eventually have our counterpart to League's Worlds with splits and invitationals and everything?

Dovagedys: We hope to have esports some day, but right now we have been very focused on making the game as fun as possible. We are focused on listening and learning to the community to be sure we are making the right improvements.
We do hope to have in client tournaments and then eventually esports some day, but right now we don't have a specific date for them.

I would like to know how you would like to lead new players to the game, and if you are thinking of creating an official deck creation system on the LOR website, and if there will be a community deck system like on mobalitcks.

DanCast: Thank you for the thoughtful question. It's a problem space we think about, and we know deck creation is a challenging aspect for many players. Deck Bundles were one idea to give players something new they could use early. We don't want to repeat the work of our partners at Mobalytics, but we are thinking about ways to make it easier to bring friends into LoR.

Since the new patch i've had issue's with SOL'S level up. So when I ahve 20+ power and round ends Sol sometimes just will not level up at all, this has happned in a few of my games were i have had a board 20+ power and he would not level up, any plans to look into this bug?

Leah: I can't speak to the specifics of this bug. But as a neat tidbit about bugs in general: For all bugs they will go through some triage process, including being verified by QA for a consistent repro, heading to production where they decide how impactful the bug is, and finally through engineering where we will of course attempt to fix it. There's a bunch of steps that go in the finding and fixing bugs that makes it a fun process.

Do you have plans to bring PVE game modes? Perhaps an event where there is a boss with a gigantic life, of which the community will have to strive to defeat and win prizes.

Dovagedys: Personally, I would love it if we were able to eventually add some PVE and/or story game modes to LOR. It's something we talk about and hope that we can do at some point, but right now we don't have any specific release date for a PVE mode.

If you had a poro in real life, what would you name it?

Dovagedys: Snack

How did you deal with the constructive criticism that most card game fans gave to you from the start of when the game was released? Ccg fans like hearthstone or MTG had made their opinions on your game, so I wonder what your opinions are on such criticism that you've been receiving the past few months

Whisper: Constructive criticism is crucial for us to grow and improve the game. We always knew that initial impressions especially from CCG fans were going to be heavily rooted in other games, and that's a totally reasonable starting point. The hope is that as they play and learn more about LoR they're able to see the strengths of what makes the game great.
DanCast: One of the areas where LoR's first impression isn't as great is in our rewards (say for Ranked or Gauntlets). In other CCGs, competitive game modes often reward cards. In games where high rarity cards are very hard to get, those rewards look very valuable.
So if you just compared rewards like icons or XP to card packs or rare cards, it looks like our rewards aren't motivating. Our philosophy on more accessible cards makes it more challenging to come up with rewards here, and it may take a new player time to see how quickly their collection can grow through the roads and vault to appreciate that difference. We're working on future things we can use as rewards to help with this.

A sandbox mode would be incredibly useful to help teach new players and give new scenarios for "puzzle" challenges and the like. Is there any technical limitation that makes this mode impossible to make? Or is this entirely impossible?

Leah: There is some technical implications to this unfortunately. As far as "puzzles" such as tutorials go, I know they can take some scripting that is special circumstance, which makes it a large time investment.
As far as a sandbox mode goes, there's a few things: exposing the right cheats on non-internal builds, the impact of having potentially infinitely long game times, or what to do about crashes as people try to do things that wouldn't happen in a normal game. We'd also have to contemplate how we load cards into the game at random (Do we need to check against your inventory, are we unloading cards no longer in use appropriately, is this impacting your game performance, etc). So not something I would say is impossible, but would take a decent time investment.

Which poro is your favorite?

Dovagedys: Nimble Poro. She's totally awesome. Also during development Steve Rubin (Live Balance Design Lead) wrote a short song about Nimble Poro and I will never forget it.

Love you Riot (?) <--- Question :uwuHeart:

Leah: Oh my, uhm, thank you

Do you think Quinn is acheiving her themeatic fantasy right now? Regardless of power level, do you think she feels 'cool' as a champion?

Dovagedys: I think so. I love Quinn and I'm really happy with her design in LOR. Her level up is one of my favorites.

how much do you take expeditions into account when designing a card (and especially assigning rarity)

Whisper: They are a soft consideration when it comes to initial design of a card. We usually do a larger pass with Expeditions once we know the general shape of the archetype. Rarity is part of that pass, given rarity helps influence appearance rate.

What's your favorite thing about the player base of LoR? Least favorite? spill the tea

DanCast:

Favorite: The dedication to creating a lively, welcoming, and meaningful community space for fans of the game and helping it grow.
Second favorite: The love for Spirit Blossom Corina and recognizing her from the promo art
Least Favorite: I don't know about some of your emote meta hot takes...

Whisper:

Fave: Y'alls meme game is off the charts and I love it
Least: Not enough love and support for the best bot, Slotbot

Dovagedys:

My favorite thing is the overwhelming positivity of the LOR community. I have been playing games on the internet for a very long time and I have never seen so much positivity in a game community before. It's astounding to me. I am very humbled by and proud of the community we are all building for LOR.
My least favorite aspect is the hyperbolic language the community sometimes uses when talking about the metagame, segregating decks that have 52% win rate as playble or S tier and decks that have 50% win rate as tier 2, 3, or even unplayable. I think that language and thought pattern leads to the erroneous idea that there are a small number of decks in the LOR metagame. When the reality is that there are 20-35 decks that all have win rates between 47% and 53%.(edited)

Knowing that in today's time there is a pandemic in the world, how did you deal working from home into developing the game as time passes by?

Leah: The pandemic is definitely a hard thing to deal with. I feel pretty lucky myself that Riot does it's best to take care of us during this time. Since I'm at a computer all day for my job, I try to take some time after work (or sometimes during, shh) to take a walk or rest if I need to.
Also making sure to stay hydrated, get plenty of rest, do some cool new hobbies, and talk with people when I'm feeling down! Gotta keep up that strong mental energy.

can we please get an article on how the spell mana system came to be? (and more design articles in general pls) (and less broad pls, the champions article only had like 2 sentences per champion)

Whisper: That is a great question! No immediate promises, but one thing I personally want to do more is write more design articles for y'all. Knowing what parts of design you want to hear about helps a ton.

Was there ever a specific champion that you loved to main and play as in League of Legends that you wished was in LoR?

Whisper: I keep trying to sneak in Twitch, but the other designers keep too many traps down
submitted by Imhotep0 to LegendsOfRuneterra [link] [comments]


2020.08.30 20:22 Kingofearth23 Anonymity by State/Country: Comprehensive Global Guide III

Ever since i started playing regularly, i've researched anonymity in places. Here is what i have for each state plus a bunch of other countries. If anything is outdated or incorrect, please comment.
United States
Alabama: No current lottery. Source: https://www.wtvy.com/content/news/Lottery-bill-other-legislation-is-likely-dead-in-Alabama-legislature-569059451.html
Alaska: No current lottery/Not Anonymous. "Unlike most other states, Alaska doesn’t have a state-sponsored lottery." Source: https://www.lotterycritic.com/lottery-results/alaska/ Alaska does permit charities to run lotteries, the largest one is Not Anonymous. Source: http://www.lottoalaska.com/
Alaska's governor has proposed a bill to create an official Alaska State Lottery. Source: https://apnews.com/78cacca5137f6b47e41be2de37600044
American Samoa: No current lottery. Source: https://simonsblogpark.com/onlinegambling/simons-guide-to-gambling-in-american-samoa/amp/
Arizona: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner for all wins of $100,000 and over. Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/arizona-becomes-latest-state-shield-lottery-winners-names-n995696
Arkansas: Not Anonymous/Other entities unclear. "Winner information is subject to disclosure under the Arkansas Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). A winner who receives a prize or prize payment from the ASL grants the ASL, its agents, officers, employees, and representatives the right to use, publish (in print or by means of the Internet) and reproduce the winner’s name, physical likeness, photograph, portraits, and statements made by the winner, and use audio sound clips and video or film footage of the winner for the purpose of press releases, advertising, and promoting the ASL". Source: https://www.myarkansaslottery.com/claim-your-prize
California: Not Anonymous/Only individuals can claim. “ The name and location of the retailer who sold you the winning ticket, the date you won and the amount of your winnings are also matters of public record and are subject to disclosure. You can form a trust prior to claiming your prize, but our regulations do not allow a trust to claim a prize. Understand that your name is still public and reportable”. Source: https://static.www.calottery.com/~/media/Publications/Popular_Downloads/winners-handbook-October%202018-%20English.pdf
Colorado: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via trust. “As part of the Open Records Act, we are required to release to the public your name, hometown, amount you won and the game you played. This information will be posted on coloradolottery.com and will be furnished to media upon request.” Source: https://www.coloradolottery.com/en/games/lotto/claim-winnings/ Source: https://denver.cbslocal.com/2016/01/15/in-colorado-and-other-states-lottery-winners-can-keep-names-secret/
Connecticut: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via a trust or LLC, "Certain information about our winners is public information: Winner's name and place of residence, date of claim, game played, prize amount won, and the selling retailer's name and location. While most winners claim prizes using their individual names, some winners come forward using other legal entities (i.e., trusts, business partnership) to claim their prizes. In those instances, the Lottery will promote the win using that legal entity's name. For more information about such instances, please consult your personal accountant or legal advisor.” Source: https://www.ctlottery.org/Content/winner_publicity.aspx
Delaware: 100% Anonymous if requested by winner. "Many winners have chosen to remain anonymous, as allowed by state law, but their excitement is yours to share!" Source: https://www.delottery.com/Winners and https://www.delottery.com/FAQs
DC: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via a trust or LLC. Anonymous question is not directly answered on lottery website. "In the District of Columbia, specific lottery winner information is public record." However, a Powerball Jackpot win was claimed via a LLC in 2009. Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/04/AR2009050402008.html
Florida: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via LLC. "Florida Lottery winners cannot remain anonymous. Florida law mandates that the Florida Lottery provide the winner's name, city of residence, game won, date won and amount won to any third party who requests the information; however Florida Lottery winners' home addresses and telephone numbers are confidential." Source: http://www.flalottery.com/faq
The Florida Lottery allows trusts to claim it, however winner information is still released in compliance with the law. A $15 Million jackpot was claimed by an LLC. Source: https://www.fox13news.com/amp/consumehit-the-lottery-remain-anonymous-not-in-florida Source: http://flalottery.com/pressRelease?searchID=199128
Georgia: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner for all prizes over $250,000. Source: https://www.stl.news/georgia-governor-signs-bill-allowing-lottery-winners-remain-anonymous/121962/
Guam: Anonymity appears to be an option. Source: https://www.kuam.com/story/11218413/guamanian-wins-big-in-sportsbingo-but-has-yet-to-claim-2m-prize
Hawaii: No current lottery. Source: https://www.kitv.com/story/40182224/powerball-or-mega-millions-lottery-in-hawaii
Idaho: Not Anonymous."By claiming a winning lottery ticket over $600, winners become subject to Idaho’s Public Records Law. This means your “win” becomes an offcial Idaho public record. Your full name, the town where you live, the game you won, the amount you won (before and after taxes), the name of the retailer where you bought the ticket, and the amount the retailer receives for selling the ticket are all a matter of public record." Can seek anonymity if you have specific security concerns (rarely granted). Source: https://www.idaholottery.com/images/uploads/general/winnersguideweb.pdf
Illinois: Not Anonymous/Anonymous if requested by winner for all wins over $250,000 however info will be released to a FOIA request. "However, Murphy also cooperated with the Illinois Press Association in adding an amendment that ensures that Freedom of Information Act, an act designed to keep government agencies transparent by allowing the public to access any public record by request, supersedes the privacy law, according to attorney Don Craven, the press association’s legal counsel." Source: https://www.thetelegraph.com/news/article/Hidden-riches-Big-lottery-winner-in-Beardstown-13626173.php
Indiana: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via LLC or trust. "Indiana law allows lottery jackpot winners to remain anonymous, with the money being claimed by a limited liability company or legal trust." Source: https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-indiana-mega-millions-winners-20160729-story.html
Iowa: Not Anonymous/Can use a trust to claim but information will be released. "When you win an Iowa Lottery prize of $600 or more, you have to fill out a winner claim form that includes your name, address and Social Security number before you can claim your winnings. Iowa law makes the information on that claim form public, meaning that anyone can request a copy of the form to see who has won the prize. We redact sensitive information, such as your Social Security number, from the form before we release it, but all other details are considered public information under Iowa law (Iowa Code Section 99G.34(5)." Source: https://www.ialotteryblog.com/2008/11/can-prize-winne.html.
For group play, "Prizes can be paid to players who play as a group. A check can be written to an entity such as a trust or to a single individual." Source: https://ialottery.com/pages/Games/ClaimingPrizes.aspx
Kansas: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. "Kansas is one of a handful of states that does not have this requirement. If you win a prize in Kansas, you may request that your identity not be released publicly." Source: https://www.kslottery.com/faqs#faq-8
Kentucky: Anonymity appears to be an option. Anonymity or who can claim is not addressed on lottery website. But multiple instances of winners claiming anonymously have been reported in the news. "Kentucky Lottery spokesman Chip Polson said the $1 million Powerball winner claimed the prize on May 15 and the Mega Million winner claimed the prize on May 12. He confirmed that both players wanted their identity to remain a secret." Source: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/2017/05/19/two-1-million-lottery-winners-who-bought-tickets-louisville-want-privacy/101870414/
Louisiana: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via trust. "Under the Lottery's statute, all prize payment records are open records, meaning that the public has a right to request the information. Depending upon the amount won and public or media interest in the win, winners may NOT be able to remain anonymous. The statute also allows the Lottery to use winners' names and city of residence for publicity purposes such as news releases. The Lottery's regular practice is not to use winner information in paid advertising or product promotion without the winner's willingness to participate. Source: https://louisianalottery.com/faq/easy-5#35 Source: https://louisianalottery.com/article/1050/the-williams-trust-claims-share-of-50-million-powerball-jackpot
Maine: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via trust. "In the event that Maine does have a Mega Millions winner, he or she can opt to remain anonymous — but Boardman says that’s never happened. “What a winner could do in Maine is they could file their claim in the name of a trust, and the trust becomes the winner. So that’s how a winner could claim their ticket anonymously,” he says." Source: https://www.mainepublic.org/post/lottery-official-reminds-mainers-they-re-exceedingly-unlikely-win-16-billion-jackpot
Maryland*: Not Anonymous by Law, Anonymous in Practice. "However, the legal basis for this anonymity in Maryland is thin. The Maryland Lottery does not advertise that lottery winners may remain anonymous, but it posts articles on its website about winners and notes those winners who have “chosen to remain anonymous:” Source: https://www.gw-law.com/blog/anonymity-maryland-lottery-winners
*"Please note that this anonymity protection does not apply to second-chance and Points for Drawings contests run through the My Lottery Rewards program. Those contests are run as promotions for the Lottery. As such, they are operated under a different set of rules than our draw games and scratch-off games. The rules of participating in our second-chance and Points for Drawings contests state that winners' identities are published."" Source: https://www.mdlottery.com/about-us/faqs/
Massachusetts: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via trust "Lottery regulations state that a claimant's name, city or town, image, amount of prize, claim date and game are public record. Therefore, photographs may be taken and used to publicize winnings." Source: https://www.masslive.com/news/2018/05/lottery_sees_increase_in_winne.html
Michigan: Not Anonymous for Powerball and Mega Millions/100% Anonymous if requested by the winner for all other winners over $10,000. "Winner Anonymity. Michigan law requires written consent before disclosing the identity of the winner of $10,000 or more from the State lottery games Lotto47 and Fantasy 5. You further understand and agree that your identity may be disclosed, and that disclosure may be required, as the winner of any prize from the multi-state games Powerball and Mega Millions." Source: https://www.michiganlottery.com/games/mega-millions
Minnesota: Not Anonymous. Anonymity or who can claim is not addressed on lottery website but lottery blog states "In Minnesota, lottery winners cannot remain anonymous. A winner's name, city, prize amount won and the place that the winning ticket was sold is public data and will be released to media and posted on our website." Source: https://www.mnlottery.com/blog/you-won-now-what
Mississippi: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. "In accordance with the Alyce G. Clarke Mississippi Lottery Law, the Mississippi Lottery will not disclose the identity of the person holding a winning lottery ticket without that person's written permission." Source: https://www.mslotteryhome.com/players/faqs/
Missouri: Not Anonymous. "At the Lottery Headquarters, a member of the Lottery's communications staff will ask you questions about your win, such as how many tickets you bought, when you found out that you won and what you plan to do with your prize money. This information will be used for a news release. You will also be asked, but are not required, to participate in a news conference, most likely at the store where you purchased your winning ticket." Source: http://www.molottery.com/whenyouwin/jackpotwin.shtm
A Missouri State Legislator has submitted a bill to the State House to give lottery winners anonymity. Source: https://www.kfvs12.com/2020/02/25/mo-house-considers-legislation-protect-identity-lottery-winners/
Montana: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via trust. "In Montana, by law, certain information about lottery winners is considered public. That information includes: the winner's name, the amount won and the winner's community of residence. Winners may choose to claim as an individual or they may choose to form a trust and claim their prize as a trust. If a trust claims a lottery prize, the name of the trust is considered public information. A trust must have a federal tax identification number in order to claim a Montana Lottery prize." Source: https://www.montanalottery.com/en/view/about-faqs
Nebraska: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via LLC. Anonymity or who can claim is not addressed on lottery website but a winner created a legal entity to claim anonymously in 2014. "Nebraska Lottery spokesman Neil Watson said with the help of a Kearney lawyer, the winner or winners have created a legal entity called Carpe Diem LLC." Source: https://journalstar.com/news/state-and-regional/nebraska/m-nebraska-powerball-winner-to-remain-anonymous/article_a044d0f0-99a7-5302-bcb9-2ce799b3a798.html
A Nebraska State Legislator has now filed a bill to give 100% Anonymity to all winners over $300,000 who request it. Source: https://journalstar.com/news/state-and-regional/nebraska/anonymity-for-lottery-winners-bill-would-give-privacy-to-those/article_1cdba44d-c8bb-5971-b73f-2eecc8cd4625.html
Nevada: No current lottery. Source: https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/heres-why-you-cant-play-powerball-in-nevada/
New Hampshire: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via a trust. Anonymity or who can claim is not addressed on lottery website but a winner successfully sued the lottery and won the right to remain anonymous in 2018. Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2018/03/12/winner-of-a-560-million-powerball-jackpot-can-keep-the-money-and-her-secret-judge-rules/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bec2db2f7d2c
New Jersey: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://www.nj.com/politics/2020/01/win-big-you-can-claim-those-nj-lottery-winnings-anonymously-under-new-law.html
New Mexico: Not Anonymous. “Winners of $10,000 or more will have name, city, game played, and prize amount and photo on website.” Can seek anonymity if you have specific security concerns (rarely granted). Source: https://www.nmlottery.com/uploads/FileLinks/82400d81a0ce468daab29ebe6db3ec27/Winner_Publicity_Policy_6_1_07.pdf
New York: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via a LLC. Anonymity or who can claim is not addressed on lottery website but per Gov. Cuomo: "For the past 40 years, individuals wishing to keep their name and information out of the public view have created LLCs to collect their winnings for them." Source: https://nypost.com/2018/12/09/cuomo-vetoes-bill-allowing-lotto-winners-to-remain-anonymous/
North Carolina: Not Anonymous. "North Carolina law allows lottery winners' identity to remain confidential only if they have an active protective order against someone or participate in the state's "Address Confidentiality Program" for victims of domestic violence, sexual offense, stalking or human trafficking." Source: https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article54548645.html
North Dakota: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://www.kfyrtv.com/home/headlines/ND-Powerball-Winners-Have-Option-to-Remain-Anonymous-364918121.html
Northern Mariana Islands: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://www.nmsalottery.com/game-rules/
Ohio: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via trust. Anonymity or who can claim is not addressed on lottery website but appears to have an anonymous option. "The procedure from there was a little cumbersome. I needed to create two separate trusts. One trust was to appoint me, as the trustee on behalf of the winner, to contact the Lottery Commission and accept the Lottery winnings. The secondary trust was set up for me as trustee of the first trust, to transfer the proceeds to the second trust with the winner as the beneficiary. This enabled me to present the ticket, accept the proceeds, and transfer it to the winner with no public record or disclosure." Source: https://www.altickcorwin.com/Articles/How-To-Claim-Lottery-Winnings-Anonymously.shtml
Oklahoma: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via trust or LLC. In accordance with the Oklahoma Open Records Act and the Oklahoma Education Lottery Act, the name of any individual, corporation, partnership, unincorporated association, limited liability company, or other legal entity, and their city of residence will be made public. Source: https://www.lottery.ok.gov/playersclub/faq.asp Source: https://oklahoman.com/article/5596678/lottery-winners-deserve-some-anonymity
Oregon: Not Anonymous. "No. Certain information about Lottery prizes is public record, including the name of the winner, amount of the prize, date of the drawing, name of the game played and city in which the winning ticket was purchased. Oregon citizens have a right to know that Lottery prizes are indeed being awarded to real persons. " Source: https://oregonlottery.org/about/public-interaction/commission-directofrequently-asked-questions Can seek anonymity if you have specific security concerns (rarely granted). Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3353432/Man-living-Iraq-wins-6-4-million-Oregon-jackpot.html
Pennsylvania: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via trust. Source: https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/trust-that-won-powerball-no-relation-to-manheim-township-emerald/article_29834922-4ca2-11e8-baac-1b15a17f3e9c.html
Puerto Rico: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/puerto-rico-powerball-winner-claims-prize-chooses-stay-anonymous-n309121
Rhode Island: Not Anonymous/Anonymous if requested but all info is subject to FOIA. "While the Lottery will do everything possible to keep a winner's information private if requested by the winner, in Rhode Island and most other states, this information falls under the Freedom of Information Act, and a winner's name and city or town of residency must be released upon request." Source: https://www.rilot.com/en-us/player-zone/faqs.html
South Carolina: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Anonymity or who can claim is not addressed on lottery website but appears to have an anonymous option based on prior winners. Source: https://myfox8.com/2019/03/15/the-anonymous-south-carolina-winner-of-the-largest-lottery-jackpot-is-donating-part-of-it-to-alabama-tornado-victims/
South Dakota: Not Anonymous for draw games and online games/100% Anonymous for Scratchoffs if requested by the winner. "You can remain anonymous on any amount won from a scratch ticket game. Jackpots for online games are required to be public knowledge. Play It Again winners are also public knowledge." Source: https://lottery.sd.gov/FAQ2018/gamefaq.aspx.
Tennessee: Not Anonymous/Can use a trust but info subject to open records act. Anonymity is explicitly noted as not being allowed on the official lottery website. Source: https://www.tnlottery.com/faq/i-won
However if it is claimed via a trust then the lottery will not give out your information unless requested to do so. "The TN lottery says: "When claiming a Lottery prize through a Trust, the TN Lottery would need identity documentation for the grantor and all ultimate beneficiaries. Once we are in possession of these documents and information, records are generated. If a formal request is made by a citizen of Tennessee, the Trust beneficiary's name, city and state must be made available under the Tennessee Open Records Act." Source: https://www.avvo.com/legal-answers/in-tennessee--can-a-lottery-jackpot-be-claimed-whi-2327592.html
Texas: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner for $1 million or more IF the winner claims it as an individual AND chooses the Cash option. Not Anonymous if claimed by a trust or LLC or if the winner chooses the Annuity option. Source: https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/retailers/FAQ_Winner_Anonymity_12112017_final.pdf
Utah: No current lottery. Source: https://www.lotterycritic.com/lottery-results/utah/
Vermont: Not Anonymous/Anonymous via trust. “The name, town and prize amount on your Claim Form is public information. If you put your name on the Claim Form, your name becomes public information. If you claim your prize in a trust, the name of the trust is placed on the Claim Form, and the name of the trust is public information.” Source: https://vtlottery.com/about/faq
Virginia: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner for prizes over $10 million. "A new law passed by the Virginia General Assembly and signed by the Governor prohibits the Virginia Lottery from disclosing information about big jackpot winners." "When the bill goes into effect this summer, the Virginia Lottery will not be allowed to release certain information about winners whose prize exceeds $10 million, unless the winner wants to be known." Source: https://www.13newsnow.com/article/news/local/virginia/new-virginia-law-allows-certain-lottery-winners-to-keep-identity-private/291-c33ea642-e8fa-45fd-b3a4-dc693cf5b372
US Virgin Islands: Anonymity appears to be an option. A $2 Million Powerball winner was allowed to remain anonymous. Source: https://viconsortium.com/virgin-islands-2/st-croix-resident-wins-2-million-in-latest-power-ball-drawing/
Washington: Not Anonymous/Can use a trust but info subject to open records act. "As a public agency, all documents held by Washington's Lottery are subject to the Public Records Act. Lottery prizes may be claimed in the name of a legally formed entity, such as a trust. However, in the event of a public records request, the documents forming the artificial entity may be released, thereby revealing the individual names of winners." https://www.walottery.com/ClaimYourPrize/
West Virginia: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner for prizes over $1 million and 5% of winnings remittance. "Effective January 1, 2019, House Bill 2982 allows winners of State Lottery draw games to remain anonymous in regards to his or her name, personal contact information, and likeness; providing that the prize exceeds one million dollars and the individual who elects to remain anonymous remits five percent of his or her winnings to the State Lottery Fund." Source: https://wvlottery.com/customer-service/customer-resources/
Wisconsin: Not Anonymous/Cannot be claimed by other entities. "Pursuant to Wisconsin’s Open Records law (Wis. Stats. Secs. 19.31–19.39), the Lottery is required to disclose a winner’s name, likeness and place of residence. If you win and claim a prize, the Lottery may use your name, likeness and place of residence for any purpose without compensation to you.
Upon claiming your prize, you waive any claims against the Lottery and its representatives for any and all liability which may result from the disclosure or use of such information." "The original winning ticket must be signed by a single human being. For-profit and non-profit entities, trusts, and other non-human beings are not eligible to play or claim a prize." Source: https://wilottery.com/claimprize.aspx
Wyoming: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. "We will honor requests for anonymity from winners. However, we certainly hope winners will allow us to share their names and good news with other players." Source: https://wyolotto.com/lottery/faq/
Other countries
Australia: 100% Anonymous if requested by winner. "The great thing about playing lotto in Australia is that winners can choose to remain anonymous and keep their privacy, unlike in the United States where winners don't have such a choice, and are often thrown into a media circus." Source: https://www.ozlotteries.com/blog/how-to-remain-anonymous-when-you-win-lotto/
Bahamas: No current lottery. Source: https://thenassauguardian.com/2013/01/29/strong-no-vote-trend-so-far-in-gaming-referendum/
Barbados: Not Anonymous. "No. Barbados Lottery winners cannot remain anonymous. The Barbados Lottery mandates the winner’s name, address, game won, date won and amount won be provided; however Barbados Lottery winners' home addresses and telephone numbers are confidential." Source: https://www.mybarbadoslottery.com/faqs
Brazil: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://www.lotterycritic.com/lottery-results/brazil-lottery/
Canada: Not Anonymous. Every provincial lottery corporation in Canada requires winners to participate in a publicity photo shoot showing their face, their name and their municipality. Can seek anonymity if you have specific security concerns (rarely granted). Source: https://consumers.findlaw.ca/article/can-lottery-winners-remain-anonymous/
Carribbean Lottery Countries (Antigua/Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts/Nevis, St. Maarten/Saba/St. Eustatius, and Turks/Caicos): Not Anonymous. "No. Caribbean Lottery winners cannot remain anonymous. The Caribbean Lottery mandates the winner’s name, address, game won, date won and amount won be provided; however Caribbean Lottery winners' home addresses and telephone numbers are confidential." Source: https://www.thecaribbeanlottery.com/faqs
China: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Must appear in a press conference and photo but allowed to wear disguise. Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/01/22/china-lottery-winners-mask/22108515/
Cuba: No current lottery. Source: https://oncubanews.com/en/cuba/society-cuba/cuban-traditions/lottery-the-national-game-infographics/
EuroMillions Countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, and UK*): 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://www.euro-millions.com/publicity
*United Kingdom: Excludes
*Caymen Islands, and Falkland Islands: No current lottery. Source: https://calvinayre.com/2018/11/02/business/cayman-islands-move-illegal-gambling-doesnt-address-real-issue/ Source: https://simonsblogpark.com/onlinegambling/simons-guide-gambling-falkland-islands/amp/#lottery-falkland-islands
*Anguilla, and Turks & Caicos: Not Anonymous. Source: https://www.thecaribbeanlottery.com/faqs
EuroJackpot Countries (Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands*, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden): 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://www.euro-jackpot.net/en/publicity
*Netherlands: Excludes
*St. Maarten, Saba, and St. Eustatius: Not Anonymous. Source: https://www.thecaribbeanlottery.com/faqs
Fiji: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://fijisun.com.fj/2012/11/08/3m-lotto-win-here/
Georgia (Kartvelia): Anonymity appears to be an option. "2.9.1. Prizes and Winners. Each Bidder shall provide details of:....how winners who waive their right to privacy will be treated;" Source: https://mof.ge/images/File/lottery/tender-documentation.pdf
Guyana: Not Anonymous. Source: https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2013/05/16/winner-says-he-was-too-busy-to-collect-78m-lotto-prize/
India*: Not Anonymous. Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35771298
*: Only available in the states of Kerala, Goa, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Sikkim, Nagaland and Mizoram. Source: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/lottery-mizoram-nagaland-sikkim-kerala-975188-2017-05-04
Indonesia: No current lottery. Source: https://apnews.com/45eb94ff1b1132470a7aa5902f0bc734
Israel: Not Anonymous by Law, Anonymous in Practice. “[A]lthough we have this right, we have never exercised it because we understood the difficulties the winners could encounter in the period after their win. We provide details about the winner, but in a manner that doesn’t disclose their identity,” Dolin Melnik, then-spokesperson for Israel’s Mifal Hapayis lottery told Haaretz in 2009." Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/why-the-israeli-lottery-gives-winners-masks/
Jamaica: Not Anonymous. First initial and last name of winner was released but winner was allowed to wear a mask for photo. Source: https://news.e-servicis.com/news/trending/lottery-winner-takes-prize-in-scream-mask.1S/
Japan: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/09/08/business/japans-lottery-rakes-declining-revenues-younger-generation-gives-jackpot-chances-pass/#.XRYwVVMpCdM
Kenya: Not Anonymous. "9.1 When You claim or are paid a prize, You will automatically be deemed to grant to O8 LOTTO an irrevocable right to publish, through all types of media broadcasting, including the internet, for the purposes of promoting the win, Your full name (as well as Your nick name), hometown, photograph and video materials without any claim for broadcasting, printing or other rights" Source: https://mylottokenya.co.ke/terms-conditions
Malaysia: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://says.com/my/news/a-24-year-old-malaysian-woman-just-won-more-than-rm4-million-from-4d-lottery
Nagorno-Karabakh: Not Anonymous. Source: http://asbarez.com/120737/artsakh-lottery-winner-claims-car-prize/
New Zealand: 100% Anonymous if requested by winner. Source: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10383080
North Korea: Not Anonymous. Source: https://www.nknews.org/2018/11/north-korean-sports-ministry-launches-online-lottery/
Northern Cyprus: Anonymity appears to be an option. Source: https://www.pressreader.com/cyprus/cyprus-today/20181124/281590946615912
Oman: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: http://www.omanlottery.com/
Philippines: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://www.rappler.com/nation/214995-ultra-lotto-winners-claim-winnings-pcso-october-2018
Romania: Anonymity appears to be an option. Source: https://www.thelotter.com/win-lottery-anonymously/
Russia: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: http://siberiantimes.com/otheothers/news/siberian-scoops-a-record-184513512-roubles-on-russian-state-lottery/
Samoa: Not Anonymous. Source: https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/191796/samoa%27s-lotto-winner-still-a-mystery
Saudi Arabia: No current lottery. Source: https://www.arabnews.com/police-arrest-lottery-crooks-victimizing-expats
Singapore: Anonymity appears to be an option. Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/did-you-win-here-are-results-of-136m-toto-hongbao-draw
Solomon Islands: No current lottery. Source: http://www.paclii.org/sb/legis/consol_act/gala196/
South Africa: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://www.thesouthafrican.com/powerball-results/powerball-winner-r232-million-found-lottery-details/
South Korea: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: https://elaw.klri.re.keng_mobile/viewer.do?hseq=38378&type=sogan&key=5
Sri Lanka: Anonymity appears to be an option. Source: http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2010/01/31/where-do-all-the-lottery-winners-go/
Taiwan: 100% Anonymous if requested by the winner. Source: http://m.focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201806250011.aspx
Trinidad and Tobago: Anonymity appears to be an option. Source: https://trinidadexpress.com/news/local/student-wins-the-million-lotto/article_3f3c8550-570d-11e9-9cc3-b7550f9b4ad4.html
Tuvalu: No current lottery. Source: http://tuvalu-legislation.tv/cms/images/LEGISLATION/PRINCIPAL/1964/1964-0004/GamingandLotteries_1.pdf
United Arab Emirates: Not Anonymous. Source: https://www.ndtv.com/indians-abroad/shojith-ks-in-sharjah-uae-wins-abu-dhabi-duty-free-big-ticket-4-million-jackpot-rejects-calls-2032942
Vatican City: Anonymity appears to be an option. Source: https://cruxnow.com/vatican/2018/12/04/popes-white-lamborghini-up-for-raffle-winner-gets-trip-to-rome/
Vietnam: Anonymity appears to be an option. Source: https://ampe.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnamese-farmer-identified-as-winner-of-4-million-lottery-jackpot-3484751.html
Windward Lottery Countries (Dominica, Grenada, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines): Not Anonymous. "Prize winners asked to do so by Winlot must give their name and address, and satisfactory establish their identity. All winners of the Jackpot (Match 6) prize will be photographed. Note that Winlot and CBN reserve the right to publish the names, addresses and photographs of all the winners." Source: http://www.stlucialotto.com/snl/super6_rules_regs.php
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2020.08.29 18:20 IdolA29Augl Fa-st G-ay Spe-ed Da-ting Minn-esota

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2020.08.28 19:16 IdolA28Augl G-ay Da-ting Matc-hmaker

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2020.08.27 15:14 Race_in_tech Racism leads to science that is biased, exclusionary, and even harmful. We’re experts on the ways racism and lack of diversity harms STEM and perpetuates inequalities - let’s discuss!

Though science aims to be unbiased and objective, the backgrounds, experiences, and perspectives of who is doing and informing the research impact the questions asked, analysis done, and who benefits from the outcomes. Cultural ideas about people influence how scientists view animal species. The make-up of research teams impacts whose stories are worth investigating, what kinds of questions get financially supported, and even who is represented in the research studies. For example, facial recognition software and metadata of photos taken at protests have been shown to have a higher rate of false positive matches for Asian and African-American faces over white faces, sometimes by a factor of 10 or even 100, in part due to training the algorithm on primary white faces. Structural racism is pervasive in precision medicine, and it deeply influences how scientists and physicians develop health guidelines. How and why such technologies, which engrain racism in our everyday lives, were developed and selected over others are questions that are framed by social history in America and elsewhere. Increasing diversity in science and samples/participants in a study can improve our research and applications of everything from artificial intelligence and machine learning to biobanks and precision medicine to archaeology and geology. Even in psychological science, in which racial biases are often put under intense scrutiny, structural racism shapes who and what gets published. We’re experts in the ways that racism and lack of diversity hurts Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math and perpetuates inequalities - let’s discuss!
As mentioned in a previous announcement post, the moderators of /science have worked in collaboration with the moderators of /blackpeopletwitter and /blackladies to create this series of discussion panels focused on race in America. These panels will be led by subject area specialists including scientists, researchers, and policy professionals so that we can engage with multiple expert perspectives on those important topics. A list of the panels, guests, and dates can be found here.
Our guests will be answering under the account u/Race_in_tech. With us today are:
André Brock: André Brock is an associate professor of media studies at Georgia Tech. He studies the rhetoric of technology, Black technoculture, and Black cybercultures; his scholarship examines Black and white representations in social media, videogames, weblogs, and other digital media
Whitney Battle-Baptiste: Whitney Battle-Baptiste is a Professor of Anthropology and Director of the W. E. B. Du Bois Center at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. A historical archaeologist of African and Cherokee descent, she has done fieldwork at Colonial Williamsburg, the Hermitage, the W. E. B DuBois Homesite, and other sites. She holds a Ph.D. from the University of Texas, Austin, and conducts research on plantations in the U.S. Southeast, the materiality of contemporary African American popular culture, and Black Feminist theory and its implications for archaeology.
Shirley Malcom: I am senior advisor and director of SEA Change at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, where I have worked for over 40 years to improve the quality and increase access to education and careers in STEMM. An ecologist by training, I was born and raised in Birmingham, Alabama. My life has been shaped by two important sociopolitical movements: America’s post-Sputnik attention to and emphasis on science, including education and careers, and growing up in the epicenter of the civil rights movement.
Steven O. Roberts: I am an Assistant Professor of Psychology at Stanford University, which is where I direct the Social Concepts Lab. My research team seeks to identify and dismantle the psychological biases that maintain and reinforce racism. We work with adults and young children.
Rachel E. Bernard: Hi! I'm Dr. Rachel Bernard and I am a geologist who studies the material properties of the Earth's lower crust and mantle. I received my undergraduate degree in geological engineering from Princeton in 2009, worked for two years on onshore and offshore oil and gas rigs, worked for another two years at the National Science Foundation, and then completed a PhD at the University of Texas at Austin in 2018. I am currently a visiting Assistant Professor at Amherst College in Massachusetts.
Lisa Rice: Lisa Rice is the President and CEO of the National Fair Housing Alliance (NFHA), the nation’s only national civil rights agency solely dedicated to eliminating all forms of housing discrimination. Lisa has led her team in using civil rights principles to bring fairness and equity into technologies used in the housing and lending sectors. She serves on the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Civil Society Advisory Council on Artificial Intelligence and FinRegLab’s Machine Learning Advisory Board. Follow Lisa on Twitter u/ItsLisaRice
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2020.08.27 02:27 random_account988 How to stop feeling like a loser from missed opportunities?

I'm gonna be a senior in high school next week. Corona gave me a lot of time to really think about my past. Maybe I'm overthinking this but idk. Mostly I feel really bad about myself due to missed opportunities.
I was part of a Math club and a Coding club during Freshman and Sophomore year, as well as Marching band. I also take private lessons at a nearby music store. Junior year, I was the captain of math team. I've also done some volunteering here and there, and had recently gotten a part-time job as a cashier.
However, I feel as though I should've done more. I'm thinking about going into ROTC for college, and looked into obtaining a scholarship. Academically, I'm ok, as my SAT is above 1000 and my GPA is above 2.5. However, in terms of physical fitness I'm a little worried.
I wish I had gotten into some sort of wrestling or boxing or Krav Maga or BJJ, or any sort of martial art really. And maybe track too. I wish I had played sports and worked hard at something athletically and made a lot of progress in a sport, instead of just studying all the time and fantasizing about becoming a boxer.
I'm looking into the physical requirements for ROTC, and I'm looking into setting up an exercise regimen consisting of me working out at home, including push ups and sit-ups and jumping jacks. There is also a running track at my school, and occasionally I would drive there and do 3 laps, timing myself and beating my previous time. I also thought about getting a gym membership, because I'm looking more into building muscle and building stamina because I'm skinny AF.
I've also heard of JROTC, which is basically the high school version of ROTC.
Bottom line, looking back on my previous years of high school, I missed several great opportunities where I could've really built myself up, became stronger, and obtain more self-confidence in myself. Instead of these missed opportunities, I did stupid things like fooling around on dating sites, pursued crushes (which were pretty much a lost cause from the beginning), wasted so much time engaging myself in various drama, played video games, goofed off with friends, and watched stupid Youtube videos.
Looking back, now that I'm getting myself ready to apply to college, I feel as though every single college is gonna reject me because I feel that I don't have enough extracurriculars. And because of corona, theres a good chance that there are no extracurricular opportunities for school, as everything is mostly gonna be remote. At least thats how it is here in Massachusetts. Everyone else at school is winning awards and getting GPAs above 4.0 (while my GPA is 3.8) and somehow still having a social life, and not having any situation where someone else has wronged them. What do I do? And how do I stop feeling bad about myself from my past mistakes? Does everyone have things from the past that they're not proud of?
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2020.08.25 02:00 TopOfTheBot Top Posts and Comments of the Day

Top of the Day for 25/08/2020

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Most Upvoted Posts of the Day

First Place
Tom Holland's dad acting normal in front of Emma Watson
posted by unknown_human on /pics
Click here to view the post. ● 142,768 Upvotes ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 10:16:50 UTC
Second Place
I just passed 1 year working on my solo project Song of Iron and 6 months since you all changed my life and blew up my first post. I've made a ton of changes based on your feedback, What do you think?
posted by ABiggerBear on /gaming
Click here to view the post. ● 125,648 Upvotes ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 14:27:52 UTC
Third Place
I haven’t been paid for 20 years
posted by Totally_Nightbot on /memes
Click here to view the post. ● 119,634 Upvotes ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 00:30:38 UTC
Fourth Place
How to recognize an animal according to it's footprints
posted by Nazeem25 on /memes
Click here to view the post. ● 117,774 Upvotes ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 08:50:56 UTC
Fifth Place
We were really excited to use a lime from our lime tree for the first time
posted by hehatesthesecansz on /funny
Click here to view the post. ● 112,534 Upvotes ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 03:16:40 UTC

Most Downvoted Posts of the Day

This section is currently being worked on.

Most Upvoted Comments of the Day

IMPORTANT NOTE: This section may be not be accurate as it is under development. Currently this only gets the most upvoted top-level comments from the most upvoted posts today.
First Place
Excessively thick pith is caused by a nitrogen to phosphorous imbalance. How are you fertilizing? What's the soil like where the tree is planted?
posted by dfranks44 on /funny
Click here to view the post. ● 25,181 Upvotes ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 04:24:11 UTC
Second Place
“Look Tom it’s that girl whose poster you had up!” “ShhhhhHHhhHhHhhhH!!!!!”
posted by bloodysundaystray on /pics
Click here to view the post. ● 15,693 Upvotes ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 12:37:22 UTC
Third Place
hahaha he still looks like he is hiding all kinds of spoilers.
posted by xenophon57 on /pics
Click here to view the post. ● 15,264 Upvotes ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 10:49:36 UTC
Fourth Place
You all seriously have changed my life, because of the positive response to my first post the game was discovered by xbox and I got the honor of being in the summer games showcase pre show. I owe a lot to this community... seriously thank you. `My name is Joe and Song of Iron is a solo passion project of mine. Think INSIDE but if the kid was a viking in the land of Nordic gods. I have a long way to go but the journey has been amazing so far and I cant wait to keep pushing to the end. ` if you want to know more about the project the [songofiron.com](https://songofiron.com) site has links to wishlist and all the social media fun. ` Thanks again!`
posted by ABiggerBear on /gaming
Click here to view the post. ● 14,747 Upvotes ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 14:30:23 UTC
Fifth Place
“Dad, Emma Watson is coming over, don’t be weird or obnoxious” `“Sure thing son”` Dad:
posted by showandmel on /pics
Click here to view the post. ● 5,450 Upvotes ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 12:13:02 UTC

Most Downvoted Comments of the Day

This section is currently being worked on.

Most Gilded Posts of the Day

IMPORTANT NOTE: This section may be not be accurate as it is under development.
First Place
As a server, I tense up every time I get a black table.
posted by SilverFoxCrosby on /TrueOffMyChest
Click here to view the post. ● 20,506 Upvotes ● 3 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 11:57:07 UTC
Second Place
On saving his sister from a dog attack, “If someone had to die, I thought it should be me.”
posted by jab116 on /pics
Click here to view the post. ● 122,346 Upvotes ● 3 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 15/07/2020 at 01:55:25 UTC
Third Place
TIFU By Giving A Homeless Man My Last $50...
posted by -_-fenneko-_- on /tifu
Click here to view the post. ● 13,018 Upvotes ● 3 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 17:10:03 UTC
Fourth Place
After 6 months homeless & jobless. I now have a new apartment, car and a job in a call center. And I did it on my own. So proud of myself.
posted by itsamejay on /MadeMeSmile
Click here to view the post. ● 195,456 Upvotes ● 3 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 22/08/2020 at 02:40:07 UTC
Fifth Place
I found KayCyy’s Brother 😃
posted by -LouisVuittonDon- on /WestSubEver
Click here to view the post. ● 1,265 Upvotes ● 3 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 20:41:48 UTC

Most Gilded Comments of the Day

IMPORTANT NOTE: This section may be not be accurate as it is under development.
First Place
I'm worried they won't
posted by TempAsst on /politics
Click here to view the post. ● 1 Upvotes ● 3 reward(s). ● 1 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 20:35:07 UTC
Second Place
Or at least crawl over to the handicapped space.
posted by Horribunny on /holdmyfeedingtube
Click here to view the post. ● 4,161 Upvotes ● 2 reward(s). ● 0 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 1 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 23/08/2020 at 18:47:55 UTC
Third Place
Dani get your dusty weird ass shoes off of the couch you monster
posted by sjb5138 on /BigBrother
Click here to view the post. ● 10 Upvotes ● 1 reward(s). ● 0 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 0 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 23:58:11 UTC
Fourth Place
In addition to what others have said, it's also the nature of nuclear bombs. They have several phases in how they work. The initial explosion deals damage, but to a pretty small area (relatively speaking). There's an initial radiation burst with that, but this is also relatively short range. The reason is that most of the radiation that causes damage is attenuated over relatively short distances. `Alpha radiation (helium nucleus of 2x protons + 2x neutrons) VERY QUICKLY grab 1 or 2 electrons from whatever they pass by, becoming stable (and thus not harmful radiation) anymore; Helium is probably the most stable element in the universe. Alpha radiation isn't harmful to Humans from outside exposure. The reason is, it can't even get through your dead skin layer without being neutralized. Even a thin layer of clothing will block it. Famously, Alpha radiation is blocked by a piece of paper. (The danger comes in if you touch something that contains or is emitting it, then eat/drink something, some of it can get on your fingers then down your throat and into your stomach, and there's no dead skin layeclothing there to protect your sensitive tissues.)` Likewise, Beta radiation (electrons) are typically gobbled up quickly by any passing atom or molecule with a decent electronegativity. More penetrating than Alpha, it can still be stopped by normal clothing. Same thing about ingestion applies here. This is why in radiation sites, they always say \"No eating, drinking, smoking, or dipping.\" `So that leaves two other general types: Neutrons and Electromagnetic.` Neutrons are electrically neutral. This means they (a) can penetrate through things a great distance but also (b) they don't interact with things much. In order for a neutron to interact, it must more or less square on hit the nucleus of a passing atom. To put this in perspective, it'd be kind of like if you shot a probe or rocket into space in a random direction and asked \"will it ever directly hit a star at the center of a solar system somewhere?\" Yes, it can happen, but it's entirely probability/a crap shoot as to whether it does or it does not. It's entirely possible for a neutron to pass into one side of your body and out the other without doing ANYTHING at all. Or it could hit one molecule just right and cause a chain reaction, damaging several other key molecules in a DNA chain in one of your cells. Neutrons that DO interact with the nucleus of an atom basically work (in a RIDICULOUSLY oversimplistic way of thinking about it) like Newton's cradle (the thing with the hanging marbles that hit each other on one end and bounce the one on the far end to swing out): The neutron becomes part of the nucleus and kicks a proton out. `...the PROTON is what goes on to crash into the next thing it hits (being positively charged, they are, of course, attracted to things where neutrons are not), and cause further reactions.` Finally, we have electromagnetic radiation or photons. These come in energy from the low energy radio to microwave, infrared, the visible spectrum (red on the low end to violet on the high end), to ultraviolet, to x-ray, to the highest energy gamma rays. Electromagnetic radiation is weird in that molecules will only absorb specific energies/frequencies of light/photons, and they are specific to that molecule type. Others will pass through without any action whatsoever. This is known as quantization (they only accept specific \"quantities\") and this creates absorption and emission lines (the specific frequencies they accept, which you can see in visual form). `Further complicating things, if a molecule accepts a photon of a given energy, it MAY give off a photon of that same energy later (one of its electrons will jump to a higher energy when it absorbs the photon's energy, then jump back down later, releasing a photon with energy), but as there are many energy levels, an electron CAN absorb a high energy photon and then come back down from that high energy in \"steps\", releasing several LOW energy photons as it does so. Energies that might NOT interact with the surroundings.` For example, visible light can pass easily through glass, but a lot of infrared cannot. When your car is in the summer heat with the windows up, the visible light will pass through the glass to the inside. There it will be absorbed by the molecules of your chair, dashboard, etc. Some of this is emitted back out later as visible light, and again passes through the glass. But, if the electron takes more than one step to come back down, it will emit several photons of lower energy infrared light on the way. These CANNOT pass through the glass, and so remain trapped inside of the car, causing the temperature to rise (cracking windows means that some of the air molecules in the car that absorb that heat energy can then escape through the window, making the car less hot than it otherwise would be - so that's how THAT works.) `One LAST thing to note here is that if the photon absorbed by the molecule has high ENOUGH energy, it won't just push the electron to a higher energy shell (\"orbit\", if you will), it will launch it out of the molecule entirely. At this point, you effectively have Beta radiation (a free electron), but inside your body (as mentioned above, that's bad since there's no skin/clothing to keep it from the more sensitive tissues). To use our analogy above, it'd be like if you shot a rocket at another solar system and it hit one of the planets there hard enough to sent it flying free of its solar system.` Needless to say, this one is complicated. Like neutrons, these can pass through your body doing NOTHING AT ALL, or they can go in and cause some damage. It is, again, a probability function of (a) will the photon pass near enough to an atom to interact and (b) is it of a specific energy that the atom will accept OR great enough to simply launch an electron out (if you exceed the binding energy of that electron entirely, then you aren't concerned about quantization anymore, since you simply remove it from the energy shell system entirely...) `FINALLY:` It's how radiation works on cells. `IF something in a cell DOES interact with radiation, several things can happen:` (a) it can be some unimportant molecule that...doesn't do anything.(b) it can be something more important, but that the cell can repair.(c) it can be something so important that the cell dies entirely, and for MOST of the cells in your body, you can deal with single cell deaths here and there (they actually happen all the time in normal life.)(d) it can be something important, BUT that your body can't repair BUT that doesn't stop the cell from reproducing to continue the \"error\" forward to future generations of cells that derive from that initial parent cell. THIS is the bad one, as it leads to things like cancers. `.` So...maybe a bit more in-depth, but I tried to keep it from going too out of control there. `The short version is, radiation is a complicated thing. It doesn't quite work like people think, and it's probability based. This means you could absorb a lot and nothing happen, or you could be exposed to a little and it kill you. People fear that unknown. BUT, the probability of harm is higher with (a) higher levels of exposure and (b) shorter times of exposure. So getting a lot of radiation in a short time IS more likely to harm you than a steady amount of a little over a long time. And the vector of entry also matters (e.g. ingestion/eating vs external exposure to skin/clothes.)` And BECAUSE it's a probability (did your missile launched into space hit a star or just travel endlessly through the void), there's no real way to PROVE harm, it's more looking at statistics, seeing if there was a spike in something like cancer cases above the average of the surrounding ares/time period, and then assuming that was maybe probably caused by radiation. `Initial blast wave = damage` Radiation wave = possibility of cancers (closer = worse) `Long term concern = contaminated surfaces and ingestion` The initial blast, contrary to dramatic effect, is actually NOT the most harmful part of a nuclear explosion. . EDIT: I should note there's some more into this (for example, how the initial blast is followed by an inrush of air from outside due to the rapidly cooling hot air contracting, or the mechanics of the compression wave, etc), but I'm trying to keep this in ELI5 territory. Definitely an interesting topic if you care to read more.
posted by Renathras on /explainlikeimfive
Click here to view the post. ● 81 Upvotes ● 1 reward(s). ● 0 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 0 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 09/08/2020 at 16:58:51 UTC
Fifth Place
Your professor is wrong. `All the Judicial, Statutory, and Historic evidence from the 17th Century to Modern day supports the individual right to keep and bear arms unconnected to militia service.` Being a direct descendant of the English colonies American law is based off of the English model. Our earliest documents from the Mayflower compact to the Constitution itself share a lineage with the Magna Carta. Even the American Bill of Rights being modeled after the English Bill of Rights. `The individual right, unconnected to milita service, pre-exists the United States and the Constitution. This right is firmly based in English law. ` [In 1689 The British Bill of Rights gave all protestants the right to keep and bear arms.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_of_Rights_1689) `[\"The English right was a right of individuals, not conditioned on militia service...The English right to arms emerged in 1689, and in the century thereafter courts, Blackstone, and other authorities recognized it. They recognized a personal, individual right.\" - ` `CATO Brief on DC v Heller]( http://www.abanet.org/publiced/preview/briefs/pdfs/07-08/07-290_RespondentAmCuCATOInstJMalcolm.pdf)` Prior to the debates on the US Constitution or its ratification multiple states built the individual right to keep and bear arms, unconnected to militia service, in their own state constitutions. `[\"That the people have a right to bear arms for the defence of themselves and the State\" - chapter 1, Section XV, Constitution of Vermont - July 8, 1777.](http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/vt01.asp)` [\"That the people have a right to bear arms for the defence of themselves and the state\" - A DECLARATION OF THE RIGHTS OF THE INHABITANTS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OR STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA, Section XIII, Constitution of Pennsylvania - September 28, 1776.](http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/pa08.asp) `Later the debates that would literally become the American Bill of Rights also include the right of the people to keep and bear arms.` [\"And that the said Constitution never be constructed to authorize Congress to infringe on the just liberty of the press, or the rights of the conscience; or prevent of people of the United States, who are peaceable citizens from keeping their own arms; or to raise standing armies, unless when necessary for the defense of the United States, or of some one or more of them; or to prevent the people from petitioning, in a peaceful and orderly manner, the federal legislature for a redress of grievances; or to subject the people to unreasonable searches and seizures of their persons, papers, or possessions.\" - Debates and proceedings in the Convention of the commonwealth of Massachusetts, 1788. Page 86-87.](https://archive.org/details/debatesandproce00peirgoog) `The American Bill of Rights itself was a compromise between the federalist and anti-federalist created for the express purpose of protecting individual rights.` [\"In the ratification debate, Anti-Federalists opposed to the Constitution, complained that the new system threatened liberties, and suggested that if the delegates had truly cared about protecting individual rights, they would have included provisions that accomplished that. With ratification in serious doubt, Federalists announced a willingness to take up the matter of a series of amendments, to be called the Bill of Rights, soon after ratification and the First Congress comes into session. The concession was undoubtedly necessary to secure the Constitution's hard-fought ratification. Thomas Jefferson, who did not attend the Constitutional Convention, in a December 1787 letter to Madison called the omission of a Bill of Rights a major mistake: \"A bill of rights is what the people are entitled to against every government on earth.\"](http://law2.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/conlaw/billofrightsintro.html) `In Madison's own words:` [“I think we should obtain the confidence of our fellow citizens, in proportion as we fortify the rights of the people against the encroachments of the government,” Madison said in his address to Congress in June 1789.](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/on-this-day-james-madison-introduces-the-bill-of-rights) `Madison's first draft of the second Amendment is even more clear.` [\"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed; a well armed and well regulated militia being the best security of a free country; but no person religiously scrupulous of bearing arms shall be compelled to render military service in person.\"](https://memory.loc.gov/cgi-bin/ampage?collId=llac&fileName=001/llac001.db&recNum=227) `Ironically it was changed because the founders feared someone would try to misconstrue a clause to deny the right of the people.` [*\"Mr. Gerry -- This declaration of rights, I take it, is intended to secure the people against the maladministration of the Government; if we could suppose that, in all cases, the rights of the people would be attended to, the occasion for guards of this kind would be removed. Now, I am apprehensive that this clause would give an opportunity to the people in power to destroy the Constitution itself. They can declare who are those religiously scrupulous and prevent them from bearing arms.\"* - House of Representatives, Amendments to the Constitution 17, Aug. 1789](http://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/amendIIs6.html) `Please note Mr. Gerry clearly refers to this as the right of the people.` This is also why we have the 9th Amendment. `[\"The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.\"](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/United_States_of_America_1992)` Article I Section 8 had already established and addressed the militia and the military making the incorrect collective militia misinterpretation redundant. `Supreme Court cases like US v. Cruikshank, Presser v. Illinois, DC v. Heller, and even the Dredd Scott decision specifically call out the individual right to keep and bear arms unconnected to militia service.` [This is further evidenced by State Constitutions including the Right to keep and bear arms from the Colonial Period to Modern Day.](http://www2.law.ucla.edu/volokh/beararms/statedat.htm) ` “The Constitutions of most of our states assert that all power is inherent in the people; that they may exercise it by themselves, in all cases to which they think themselves competent, (as in electing their functionaries executive and legislative, and deciding by a jury of themselves, both fact and law, in all judiciary cases in which any fact is involved) or they may act by representatives, freely and equally chosen; that it is their right and duty to be at all times armed; that they are entitled to freedom of person; freedom of religion; freedom of property; and freedom of the press. in the structure of our legislatures we think experience has proved the benefit of subjecting questions to two separate bodies of deliberants; ...” - Thomas Jefferson’s letter to John Cartwright, on June 5th, 1824`
posted by vegetarianrobots on /gunpolitics
Click here to view the post. ● 104 Upvotes ● 1 reward(s). ● 0 silver reward(s), 1 gold reward(s) and 0 platinum reward(s) ● Posted: 24/08/2020 at 23:10:51 UTC
submitted by TopOfTheBot to TopOfThe [link] [comments]


2020.08.19 15:35 finn4141 REPOST: Whitewash article from 2008

(originally posted in 2019)
We just posted this newspaper article in the evidence sub that has some interesting detail I had not heard before. I'll just post without commentary but I did want to thank swansong for spotting this article in topix and hugeraspberry for finding the Journal Opinion archive (link at bottom) and others for helping me with retrieval.
Journal Opinion - 2/13/08 - by Kelly White
Though four years have now passed, the location and date of Maura Murray's disappearance are still etched in the memory of North Country residents: Route 112 in Haverhill on Feb. 9, 2004.
It is a mystery what happened to Murray after the 21-year-old woman crashed her car and disappeared. And four years of searches, investigations and speculation have seen leads turn to dead ends and a family and small New Hampshire town get caught in the middle of a tragic mystery. After four years of speculation about the Maura Murray case, the law enforcement agencies involved want to speak out about the investigation and assure the public that procedures and policies that are used for any investigation were followed in the Maura Murray case.
Haverhill Police Chief Jeff Williams always strives to get the focus back to what is the most important question in this case, "Where is Maura Murray?"
In an interview, Williams took the opportunity to remind the public of the facts from the original case. For Williams, it is important to note that the Haverhill Police Department as well as all the law enforcement involved, handled the investigation according to regular procedure and protocol from day one. And he says that the investigation has been handled properly since Haverhill Police Department responded to the initial calls about a car accident in Swiftwater.
Williams said that Haverhill Police Department did all they could the night of the accident. Standard procedures were followed and photographs and documentation were made of everything that they found that night. The only thing he said he wished was different that night was that they could have made contact with the Murray family the night of the accident.
Lt. John Scarinza of the New Hampshire State Police added that the combined law enforcement agencies have put in thousands of man hours on this case with no cost spared to find Maura Murray and he added that all agencies have worked well together and within standard policies and procedures expected of them.
As part of an interview with Williams, the Haverhill Police Department provided the following timeline of the early stages of the investigation into the car accident:
On Feb. 9 at 7:29p.m., a 911 call was placed by residents on Wild Ammonoosuc Road about a motor vehicle accident. At 7:46 p.m., Grafton County Dispatch received a call that Sgt. Cecil Smith arrived at the scene. Smith found the vehicle locked and without a driver. He had dispatch run the license plate for the black 1996 Saturn 4-door. He was informed that the car was owned by Fred Murray of Weymouth, MA.
During the first stages of the investigation into the accident, photographs were taken of tire tracks in the snow leading into a stand of trees on the side of the road and showed that the vehicle struck the trees with enough impact to deploy both airbags. Williams noted that taking photographic evidence and documentation at the scene of an accident are standard operating procedure.
Smith later began to question neighbors about the accident. After questioning a school bus driver who stopped to inquire if Maura needed assistance, Smith learned that a woman in her 20's had been seen at the vehicle. According to a statement given the police, the witness stated the woman's speech was slurred and she had to hold on to something while she stood. "She begged me not to call police," according to the witness' statement.
While still on scene, Smith requested that Grafton County Dispatch call the residence listed with the car's registration and to inform local hospitals to be on the lookout for a young woman with a description supplied by one of the witnesses. This broadcast was put out to responding units and the dispatch center called Fred Murray's residence in Massachusetts and left a message. At 7:57 p.m., according to Grafton County Dispatch, Woodsville's Fire Rescue Pumper Truck arrived with the department's officers. They were holding a monthly meeting when they received a call about a car accident in Swiftwater.
They first cleared the car of any leaking fluids. Woodsville Fire Chief Brad Kennedy said that it is standard procedure with any vehicle accident called in to 911 that fire rescue are dispatched autimatically. There is only one person authorized to turn around a fire department responding to a call-the fire chief.
Once it was ascertained that the driver of the vehicle was not at the scene, Haverhill Police Department, New Hampshire State Police, fire and EMS personnel along with several neighbors began a brief search of the area surrounding Route 112 and Bradley Hill Road.
A local towing company was called in to remove the vehicle, which according to Williams is part of police policy to impound and store in locked facilities any and all evidence. Upon removal of the vehicle from the accident scene, Smith retrieved a Coca-Cola soda bottle with a strong odor of alcohol which was filed as evidence.
At 9:26 p.m., Smith was dispatched to Pike and left the area. Later that evening, at 11 p.m., Smith made a second attempt to phone the residence of Fred Murray, owner of the vehicle, listed on the Department of Motor Vehicle records. He left a second message that the Haverhill Police Department needed to speak with the car's owner.
About the same time, at 11 p.m., Cpl. Byron Charles and Officer Mac Cashin assisted Smith in the accident investigation as well as working on securing a search warrant for the black 1996 Saturn that was now impounded.
The following day on Feb 10, at 9:30 a.m., a search warrant was issued by Judge Timothy McKenna of Haverhill District Court to search the impounded black 1996 Saturn. Charles and Cashin then completed a search of the vehicle.
At approximately 1:30 p.m., a be-on-the-lookout (BOL) communique was issued throughout Vermont, New Hampshire and Massachusetts for Maura Murray.
At 3:30 p.m., Smith returned to duty and called Weymouth Police Department requesting they check the residence listed on the DMV information. They still had not heard from Fred Murray. Weymouth PD instead directed Smith to contact Laurie Murray's phone number.
At 3:40 p.m., Smith spoke to Laurie Murray who informed him that the black Saturn belonged to her ex-husband Fred Murray but is driven by their daughter Maura. Laurie gave Smith the number to Maura's cell phone and to her dorm at the University of Massachusetts. Right after that conversation, Smith again tried Fred Murray's phone number and left another message. He also spoke with Hanson Police Department again at 3:51 p.m.
Smith called Maura Murray's sister, Kathleen Murray at 4:40 p.m. requesting a photo of Maura. Kathleen said she would email one to Haverhill Police Department.
At 6 p.m., Grafton County Dispatch was contacted by Fred Murray. And at 7 p.m., Smith called the University of Massachusetts (UM) campus security and requested that they check Maura Murray's dorm room.
Smith was able to speak to Fred Murray at 8 p.m. on Feb. 10. In the initial, official police statement, Fred Murray stated that his daughter, Maura, was depressed and he was fearful for her safety. He informed Smith that she had an accident in Hadley, MA on Feb.7, 2004, wrecking another vehicle of his and totaling thousands of dollar's worth of damage.
Murray told Smith that he hoped Maura wasn't doing the "old squaw walk" which Murray explained was something the two of them often joked about. The squaw walk referred to when it came time for the old Indians to die, they would walk off into the woods and die. Fred Murray requested that HPD call in the FBI, state police and a search began immediately for his daughter.
At 8.25 p.m., Haverhill Police called fish and game authorities to advise of them of a missing person situation and possible search as it had just become apparent that they may have an endangered/missing person.
Haverhill Police Department received a call at 8:40 p.m. from UM campus security to report Maura Murray's belongings were all packed in her dorm room. Campus security had evidence that she was last seen Sunday morning by a fellow student and that she was carrying a backpack, box of wine and a large hockey bag of beer. Fish and game informed the HPD at 9 p.m. that if the driver was not located by the morning of Feb 11, they would begin a search at daylight.
The next day on Feb 11, fish and game officers, state police, local police, along with family and friends of Maura Murray began one of the first of many searches at the Wild Ammonoosuc Road accident site.
Williams said he contacted the FBI early on and he, the FBI, New Hampshire State Police and UM campus security all met in Keene to confer about the investigation.
After four years of searches and heartache, no answers have been found. It is heart-wrenching for family members, friends and the community where the accident occurred that Maura's whereabouts are not known.
Still, the investigation continues and it will remain open until Maura Murray is found. Scarinza said that there is still the possibility that someday this could possibly become a criminal case.
"If that is where the evidence leads us," he said. "There has been such a push by some to have the case become open to the public. This would totally jeopardize any good investigation done by all agencies involved and who, in reality, would that serve justice to? Certainly not Miss Maura Murray." If you have any information about Maura Murray or the night of the accident, please contact NHSP Troop F at xxxxxxx or the Haverhill Police Department at XXXXXXX
Archive thanks to HugeRaspberry: http://jop.stparchive.com/Archive/JOP/JOP02202008P04.php?tags=mauramurray
submitted by finn4141 to NotWithoutPeril [link] [comments]


2020.08.16 15:27 TheUnknownStitcher General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 16, 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
This is likely to be one of the last clear snapshots of polling until at least mid-September. Historically speaking, the party conventions impart a statistically significant 'bump' in candidates' poll numbers. This convention bounce averages around 5 points for candidates (though some candidates have far surpassed this number), but the trend of high bounces has seen a decline in recent elections. With increased coverage of each party during their respective conventions (DNC: August 17-20, RNC: August 24-27), and this year's conventions taking place in a mostly-remote setting, it is hard to predict how large or any impact on the polls will be.
Poll Date Type Biden Trump
NBC News 8-16 National 50 41
SurveyUSA 8-15 Connecticut 52 32
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-14 California 61 25
Data for Progress 8-14 National 51 41
Data for Progress 8-14 National 52 39
YouGov 8-14 Massachusetts 61 28
Global Strategy Group 8-14 National 52 42
Marist College 8-14 National 53 42
Fox News 8-13 National 49 42
Léger 8-13 National 46 --
Léger 8-13 National 47 39
Pew Research Center 8-13 National 53 45
Morning Consult 8-13 National 51 42
Morning Consult 8-13 National 50 43
Morning Consult 8-13 National 50 43
Harper Polling 8-13 North Carolina 45 44
Morning Consult 8-13 National 51 43
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 8-13 Mississippi 43 53
SurveyUSA 8-13 California 56 28
Rasmussen Reports 8-13 Wisconsin 55 42
Harris Insights & Analytics 8-12 National 44 40
Ipsos 8-12 National 47 38
Ipsos 8-12 National 43 37
Ipsos 8-12 National 56 43
Ipsos 8-12 National 58 42
SurveyUSA 8-12 Kansas 41 48
YouGov Blue 8-12 National 51 45
Rasmussen Reports 8-12 National 49 43
Critical Insights 8-12 Maine 45 38
YouGov 8-12 National 49 39
Morning Consult 8-12 National 49 40
Change Research 8-12 National 50 44
Change Research 8-12 Wisconsin 47 43
Change Research 8-12 North Carolina 47 48
Change Research 8-12 Arizona 45 44
Change Research 8-12 Florida 50 44
Change Research 8-12 Michigan 48 43
Change Research 8-12 Pennsylvania 48 44
MassINC Polling Group 8-12 Massachusetts 63 27
Emerson College 8-11 Pennsylvania 53 46
Emerson College 8-11 North Carolina 49 50
Emerson College 8-11 Arizona 53 46
Critical Insights 8-11 Maine 44 36
Critical Insights 8-11 Maine CD-2 39 38
Critical Insights 8-11 Maine CD-1 49 33
Marquette University Law School 8-11 Wisconsin 50 45
Marquette University Law School 8-11 Wisconsin 50 46
Monmouth University 8-11 National 52 39
Monmouth University 8-11 National 51 41
Emerson College 8-11 Minnesota 51 49
SurveyUSA 8-11 Georgia 46 44
Public Policy Polling 8-10 North Carolina 49 46
Rasmussen Reports 8-10 North Carolina 47 48
HIT Strategies 8-10 North Carolina 47 37
HIT Strategies 8-10 Georgia 44 40
Trafalgar Group 8-10 Arizona 44 46
RMG Research 8-10 National 45 37
RMG Research 8-10 Maine 50 39
Georgetown University (Battleground) 8-10 National 53 39
OH Predictive Insights 8-10 Arizona 49 45
Strategies 360 8-10 Nebraska CD-1 46 48
YouGov 8-10 Wisconsin 49 43
YouGov 8-10 Michigan 47 43
YouGov 8-10 Pennsylvania 50 41

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
submitted by TheUnknownStitcher to politics [link] [comments]


2020.08.16 03:46 jg429 Sub Survey Results!!

Thanks to everyone who filled out the survey! I was hoping to get some insight into what's bringing people here and how we can improve, and I think we mostly met that goal! You can go on a deep dive into the results below.
In general, people come here because of the sense of community and how nice everyone is. Ways we can improve: more engagement with each other and with the band (I lost count of how many people asked for Rian's AMA lol). The mods will work on what we want to do with some of these ideas and go from there.
81 people filled out the survey. Last year, we had 65 responses. I linked the results to the last survey, but I have not yet gone through to see what's similar and what's different.
Disclaimer #1: Some comments were lightly edited for clarify or spelling.
Disclaimer #2: Next time I think I want to do a survey, someone please remind me how much freaking work it is to put all the data together.
Disclaimer #3: My comments are in bold, as are the top selections for each category. I was a little sassy.
Reminder: There are controversial opinions about the band and normal song opinions. You're welcome to respond to anything but remember to be nice and respectful. Everyone is entitled to their opinions and mostly everyone is here because of how welcoming the community is.

Demographics

Gender

Location
State (if in US)
Age

All-Time Stats

How Long Have You Been Listening to ATL?
First Album/EP You Listened To?
Where Does ATL Fit Into Your Favorite Bands?
How Many Times Have You Seen ATL Live?
Do you watch/listen to Crash Test Live/Full Frontal?

Opinions

Favorite Album/EP?
Least Favorite Album/EP

Favorite Song
Least Favorite Song
Favorite Opener - this band has some great openers. I went with Reckless but it was hard to choose!
Favorite Closer
Favorite Part of ATL
Least Favorite Part of ATL - this is why we're all reading this post, right?
Favorite B-Side
Favorite Song to Hear Live
Least Favorite Song to Hear Live
Dream song to hear live that they WILL NOT PLAY?
Do you have a favorite member?
Wow us with your controversial opinions/hot takes: or is it THIS section we're all here for?

Sub Feedback

How long have you been subscribed to alltimelow?

How often do you come here?
What other subs do you frequent? I took out all the because that seemed super spammy
What other fan spaces do you use? (To interact with other fans, not to follow the band/members)
If you use other spaces, how does the sub compare?
What do you like about the sub?
How could we improve?
What would you like to see on the sub for content/activity?
Anything You Want To Add?
submitted by jg429 to alltimelow [link] [comments]


2020.08.09 17:19 finn4141 REPOST: Whitewash Article from 2008

[Hi all - I'm just reposting so I can link - you can discuss or ignore]
We just posted this newspaper article in the evidence sub that has some interesting detail I had not heard before. I'll just post without commentary but I did want to thank swansong for spotting this article in topix and hugeraspberry for finding the Journal Opinion archive (link at bottom) and others for helping me with retrieval.
Journal Opinion - 2/13/08 - by Kelly White
Though four years have now passed, the location and date of Maura Murray's disappearance are still etched in the memory of North Country residents: Route 112 in Haverhill on Feb. 9, 2004.
It is a mystery what happened to Murray after the 21-year-old woman crashed her car and disappeared. And four years of searches, investigations and speculation have seen leads turn to dead ends and a family and small New Hampshire town get caught in the middle of a tragic mystery. After four years of speculation about the Maura Murray case, the law enforcement agencies involved want to speak out about the investigation and assure the public that procedures and policies that are used for any investigation were followed in the Maura Murray case.
Haverhill Police Chief Jeff Williams always strives to get the focus back to what is the most important question in this case, "Where is Maura Murray?"
In an interview, Williams took the opportunity to remind the public of the facts from the original case. For Williams, it is important to note that the Haverhill Police Department as well as all the law enforcement involved, handled the investigation according to regular procedure and protocol from day one. And he says that the investigation has been handled properly since Haverhill Police Department responded to the initial calls about a car accident in Swiftwater.
Williams said that Haverhill Police Department did all they could the night of the accident. Standard procedures were followed and photographs and documentation were made of everything that they found that night. The only thing he said he wished was different that night was that they could have made contact with the Murray family the night of the accident.
Lt. John Scarinza of the New Hampshire State Police added that the combined law enforcement agencies have put in thousands of man hours on this case with no cost spared to find Maura Murray and he added that all agencies have worked well together and within standard policies and procedures expected of them.
As part of an interview with Williams, the Haverhill Police Department provided the following timeline of the early stages of the investigation into the car accident:
On Feb. 9 at 7:29p.m., a 911 call was placed by residents on Wild Ammonoosuc Road about a motor vehicle accident. At 7:46 p.m., Grafton County Dispatch received a call that Sgt. Cecil Smith arrived at the scene. Smith found the vehicle locked and without a driver. He had dispatch run the license plate for the black 1996 Saturn 4-door. He was informed that the car was owned by Fred Murray of Weymouth, MA.
During the first stages of the investigation into the accident, photographs were taken of tire tracks in the snow leading into a stand of trees on the side of the road and showed that the vehicle struck the trees with enough impact to deploy both airbags. Williams noted that taking photographic evidence and documentation at the scene of an accident are standard operating procedure.
Smith later began to question neighbors about the accident. After questioning a school bus driver who stopped to inquire if Maura needed assistance, Smith learned that a woman in her 20's had been seen at the vehicle. According to a statement given the police, the witness stated the woman's speech was slurred and she had to hold on to something while she stood. "She begged me not to call police," according to the witness' statement.
While still on scene, Smith requested that Grafton County Dispatch call the residence listed with the car's registration and to inform local hospitals to be on the lookout for a young woman with a description supplied by one of the witnesses. This broadcast was put out to responding units and the dispatch center called Fred Murray's residence in Massachusetts and left a message. At 7:57 p.m., according to Grafton County Dispatch, Woodsville's Fire Rescue Pumper Truck arrived with the department's officers. They were holding a monthly meeting when they received a call about a car accident in Swiftwater.
They first cleared the car of any leaking fluids. Woodsville Fire Chief Brad Kennedy said that it is standard procedure with any vehicle accident called in to 911 that fire rescue are dispatched autimatically. There is only one person authorized to turn around a fire department responding to a call-the fire chief.
Once it was ascertained that the driver of the vehicle was not at the scene, Haverhill Police Department, New Hampshire State Police, fire and EMS personnel along with several neighbors began a brief search of the area surrounding Route 112 and Bradley Hill Road.
A local towing company was called in to remove the vehicle, which according to Williams is part of police policy to impound and store in locked facilities any and all evidence. Upon removal of the vehicle from the accident scene, Smith retrieved a Coca-Cola soda bottle with a strong odor of alcohol which was filed as evidence.
At 9:26 p.m., Smith was dispatched to Pike and left the area. Later that evening, at 11 p.m., Smith made a second attempt to phone the residence of Fred Murray, owner of the vehicle, listed on the Department of Motor Vehicle records. He left a second message that the Haverhill Police Department needed to speak with the car's owner.
About the same time, at 11 p.m., Cpl. Byron Charles and Officer Mac Cashin assisted Smith in the accident investigation as well as working on securing a search warrant for the black 1996 Saturn that was now impounded.
The following day on Feb 10, at 9:30 a.m., a search warrant was issued by Judge Timothy McKenna of Haverhill District Court to search the impounded black 1996 Saturn. Charles and Cashin then completed a search of the vehicle.
At approximately 1:30 p.m., a be-on-the-lookout (BOL) communique was issued throughout Vermont, New Hampshire and Massachusetts for Maura Murray.
At 3:30 p.m., Smith returned to duty and called Weymouth Police Department requesting they check the residence listed on the DMV information. They still had not heard from Fred Murray. Weymouth PD instead directed Smith to contact Laurie Murray's phone number.
At 3:40 p.m., Smith spoke to Laurie Murray who informed him that the black Saturn belonged to her ex-husband Fred Murray but is driven by their daughter Maura. Laurie gave Smith the number to Maura's cell phone and to her dorm at the University of Massachusetts. Right after that conversation, Smith again tried Fred Murray's phone number and left another message. He also spoke with Hanson Police Department again at 3:51 p.m.
Smith called Maura Murray's sister, Kathleen Murray at 4:40 p.m. requesting a photo of Maura. Kathleen said she would email one to Haverhill Police Department.
At 6 p.m., Grafton County Dispatch was contacted by Fred Murray. And at 7 p.m., Smith called the University of Massachusetts (UM) campus security and requested that they check Maura Murray's dorm room.
Smith was able to speak to Fred Murray at 8 p.m. on Feb. 10. In the initial, official police statement, Fred Murray stated that his daughter, Maura, was depressed and he was fearful for her safety. He informed Smith that she had an accident in Hadley, MA on Feb.7, 2004, wrecking another vehicle of his and totaling thousands of dollar's worth of damage.
Murray told Smith that he hoped Maura wasn't doing the "old squaw walk" which Murray explained was something the two of them often joked about. The squaw walk referred to when it came time for the old Indians to die, they would walk off into the woods and die. Fred Murray requested that HPD call in the FBI, state police and a search began immediately for his daughter.
At 8.25 p.m., Haverhill Police called fish and game authorities to advise of them of a missing person situation and possible search as it had just become apparent that they may have an endangered/missing person.
Haverhill Police Department received a call at 8:40 p.m. from UM campus security to report Maura Murray's belongings were all packed in her dorm room. Campus security had evidence that she was last seen Sunday morning by a fellow student and that she was carrying a backpack, box of wine and a large hockey bag of beer. Fish and game informed the HPD at 9 p.m. that if the driver was not located by the morning of Feb 11, they would begin a search at daylight.
The next day on Feb 11, fish and game officers, state police, local police, along with family and friends of Maura Murray began one of the first of many searches at the Wild Ammonoosuc Road accident site.
Williams said he contacted the FBI early on and he, the FBI, New Hampshire State Police and UM campus security all met in Keene to confer about the investigation.
After four years of searches and heartache, no answers have been found. It is heart-wrenching for family members, friends and the community where the accident occurred that Maura's whereabouts are not known.
Still, the investigation continues and it will remain open until Maura Murray is found. Scarinza said that there is still the possibility that someday this could possibly become a criminal case.
"If that is where the evidence leads us," he said. "There has been such a push by some to have the case become open to the public. This would totally jeopardize any good investigation done by all agencies involved and who, in reality, would that serve justice to? Certainly not Miss Maura Murray." If you have any information about Maura Murray or the night of the accident, please contact NHSP Troop F at xxxxxxx or the Haverhill Police Department at XXXXXXX
Archive thanks to HugeRaspberry: http://jop.stparchive.com/Archive/JOP/JOP02202008P04.php?tags=mauramurray
submitted by finn4141 to MauraMurraySub [link] [comments]


2020.08.09 15:52 galleyest General Election Polling Discussion Thread (Aug 9, 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Poll Date Type Biden Trump
YouGov 8-9 Pennsylvania 49 43
YouGov 8-9 Wisconsin 48 42
Global Strategy Group 8-7 National 49 45
Zogby Interactive 8-7 National 46 46
Zogby Interactive 8-7 National 46 46
Zogby Interactive 8-7 National 46 45
Trafalgar Group 8-7 Texas 43 49
Public Policy Polling 8-7 Kansas 43 50
Research Co. 8-7 National 48 38
EPIC-MRA 8-7 Michigan 51 40
Harris Insights & Analytics 8-5 National 43 40
RMG Research 8-6 Iowa 40 41
Quinnipiac University 8-6 South Carolina 42 47
Quinnipiac University 8-6 Maine CD-1 61 30
Quinnipiac University 8-6 Maine CD-2 44 45
Quinnipiac University 8-6 Kentucky 41 50
Quinnipiac University 8-6 Maine 52 37
David Binder Research 8-6 Michigan 51 41
David Binder Research 8-6 Wisconsin 53 42
David Binder Research 8-6 Minnesota 54 36
David Binder Research 8-6 Iowa 49 43
DFM Research 8-6 Oklahoma 36 56
Data for Progress 8-6 Maine 53 43
Data for Progress 8-6 Iowa 45 46
Data for Progress 8-6 Maine 49 42
Data for Progress 8-6 North Carolina 49 45
Data for Progress 8-6 North Carolina 46 44
Data for Progress 8-6 Iowa 42 44
Data for Progress 8-6 Arizona 47 44
Data for Progress 8-6 Arizona 45 43
Bluegrass Voters Coalition 8-5 Kentucky 34 55
Morning Consult 8-5 Indiana 38 55
Bluegrass Voters Coalition 8-5 Kentucky 45 52
Ipsos 8-5 National 54 45
Ipsos 8-5 National 56 44
Marquette University Law School 8-5 Wisconsin 52 44
Marquette University Law School 8-5 Wisconsin 49 45
Rasmussen Reports 8-5 National 48 45
Monmouth University 8-5 Iowa 46 48
Monmouth University 8-5 Iowa 45 48
Monmouth University 8-5 Iowa 47 47
YouGov 8-5 National 49 40
Zogby Interactive 8-5 North Carolina 44 40
Zogby Interactive 8-5 Florida 43 43
Zogby Interactive 8-5 Ohio 43 41
Zogby Interactive 8-5 Pennsylvania 44 43
MRG Research 8-5 Hawaii 56 29
Hodas & Associates 8-5 Wisconsin 52 37
Hodas & Associates 8-5 Michigan 52 40
Hodas & Associates 8-5 Pennsylvania 50 44
University of California, Berkeley 8-4 California 67 28
Morning Consult 8-4 National 50 43
Morning Consult 8-4 National 50 43
Morning Consult 8-4 National 50 43
Morning Consult 8-4 National 51 42
Morning Consult 8-4 National 51 42
Morning Consult 8-4 National 51 42
Morning Consult 8-4 National 50 43
Morning Consult 8-4 Texas 47 46
Morning Consult 8-4 South Carolina 44 49
Morning Consult 8-4 Kentucky 35 59
Morning Consult 8-4 Alabama 36 58
Fox News 8-3 National 48 41
Public Policy Polling 8-3 Michigan 49 43
Global Strategy Group 8-3 Wisconsin 51 42
Emerson College 8-3 Montana 45 54
Center for Marketing and Opinion Research 8-3 Ohio 45 41
YouGov 8-2 Georgia 46 45
YouGov 8-2 North Carolina 48 44
Emerson College 7-31 National 53 46
YouGov 7-31 National 49 40
Data for Progress 7-31 National 51 42
Data for Progress 7-31 National 50 43
Public Policy Polling 7-31 Minnesota 52 42
University of New Hampshire 7-30 New Hampshire 52 39
University of New Hampshire 7-30 New Hampshire 44 46
University of New Hampshire 7-30 New Hampshire 53 40
IBD 7-30 National 48 41
Virginia Commonwealth University 7-30 Virginia 50 39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 7-30 Wisconsin 45 35
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 7-30 Michigan 49 37
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 7-30 Arizona 46 38
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 7-30 Pennsylvania 48 41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 7-30 North Carolina 43 42
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 7-30 Florida 48 41
Franklin & Marshall College 7-30 Pennsylvania 50 41
Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) 7-30 North Carolina 46 48
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 7-30 Florida 50 46
Harris Insights & Analytics 7-29 National 55 45
Optimus 7-29 National 47 40
Optimus 7-29 National 38 31
TargetPoint 7-29 Michigan 49 33
Rasmussen Reports 7-29 National 48 42
Monmouth University 7-29 Georgia 47 47
Monmouth University 7-29 Georgia 47 48
Monmouth University 7-29 Georgia 46 49
YouGov 7-29 National 49 40
Zogby Interactive 7-29 National 44 40
Ipsos 7-29 National 57 43
Ipsos 7-29 National 57 43
Change Research 7-29 Pennsylvania 48 46
Change Research 7-29 Florida 48 45
Change Research 7-29 National 51 42
Change Research 7-29 Arizona 47 45
Change Research 7-29 Michigan 46 42
Change Research 7-29 Wisconsin 48 43
Change Research 7-29 North Carolina 49 46
SurveyUSA 7-28 Washington 62 28
Morning Consult 7-28 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 7-28 North Carolina 46 49
Morning Consult 7-28 Michigan 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 Minnesota 49 42
Morning Consult 7-28 Florida 47 48
Morning Consult 7-28 Ohio 42 50
Morning Consult 7-28 Virginia 52 42
Morning Consult 7-28 Pennsylvania 48 44
Morning Consult 7-28 Texas 43 50
Morning Consult 7-28 Georgia 47 49
Morning Consult 7-28 Colorado 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 Arizona 45 47
Colby College 7-28 Maine 50 38
Colby College 7-28 Maine CD-1 55 35
Colby College 7-28 Maine CD-2 45 42
Public Policy Polling 7-28 Montana 45 50
Public Policy Polling 7-28 North Carolina 49 46
Public Policy Polling 7-28 Alaska 44 50
Public Policy Polling 7-28 Maine 53 42
Public Policy Polling 7-28 Georgia 46 45
Public Policy Polling 7-28 Colorado 54 41
Public Policy Polling 7-28 Iowa 47 48
DKC Analytics 7-28 New Jersey 51 33
MassINC Polling Group 7-28 Massachusetts 55 23
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 51 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 43
Morning Consult 7-28 National 51 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 51 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 51 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 43
Morning Consult 7-28 National 51 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 51 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 51 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 43
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 51 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 51 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 51 42
Morning Consult 7-28 National 48 44
Morning Consult 7-28 National 49 44
Morning Consult 7-28 National 49 43
Morning Consult 7-28 Minnesota 47 44
Morning Consult 7-28 Texas 47 45
Morning Consult 7-28 Michigan 52 42
Morning Consult 7-28 Georgia 47 46
Morning Consult 7-28 North Carolina 47 47
Morning Consult 7-28 Ohio 45 48
Morning Consult 7-28 Pennsylvania 50 42
Morning Consult 7-28 Virginia 52 41
Morning Consult 7-28 Florida 49 46
Morning Consult 7-28 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 7-28 Colorado 52 39
Morning Consult 7-28 Arizona 49 42
ALG Research 7-27 South Carolina 45 50
Trafalgar Group 7-27 Minnesota 49 44
brilliant corners Research & Strategies 7-27 South Carolina 43 50
Harris Insights & Analytics 7-27 National 55 45
Kaiser Family Foundation 7-27 National 47 38
Marist College 7-27 North Carolina 51 44
AP-NORC 7-27 National 46 34
YouGov 7-26 National 51 41
YouGov 7-26 Michigan 48 42
YouGov 7-26 Ohio 45 46
Marist College 7-26 Arizona 50 45
SSRS 7-26 Michigan 52 40
SSRS 7-26 Arizona 49 45
SSRS 7-26 Florida 51 46
Gravis Marketing 7-25 Pennsylvania 48 45
Echelon Insights 7-24 National 52 43
Echelon Insights 7-24 National 51 41
Echelon Insights 7-24 National 49 40
Echelon Insights 7-24 National 53 38
Echelon Insights 7-24 National 50 37
Gravis Marketing 7-24 Michigan 51 42
Gravis Marketing 7-24 Wisconsin 50 42
Data for Progress 7-24 National 49 43
Data for Progress 7-24 National 49 43
Fox News 7-23 Michigan 49 40
Fox News 7-23 Minnesota 51 38
Fox News 7-23 Pennsylvania 50 39
Global Strategy Group 7-23 National 50 39
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 7-23 National 51 43
GQR Research (GQRR) 7-23 National 55 44

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
submitted by galleyest to politics [link] [comments]


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